Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister of the UK, has recently experienced an unprecedented decline in his approval ratings, dropping 49 points within a mere four months. According to a poll conducted by More in Common, his current approval is at an alarming low of -38, marking the largest post-election drop for a British leader in modern history. This figure is even lower than Rishi Sunak’s rating just before his resignation in July, which stood at -37 after his party’s significant electoral defeat. Starmer’s initial rise to power came on the heels of a landslide election victory in July, during which he aimed to reposition Labour away from the more leftist policies of former leader Jeremy Corbyn and back to the centrism associated with Tony Blair.
Starmer’s plummet in popularity is notable against the backdrop of Tony Blair’s tenure, who enjoyed a +60 approval rating following Labour’s decisive win in 1997. The stark difference suggests that public sentiment toward Starmer has shifted dramatically in a short timeframe. Political analysts, including More in Common Director Luke Tryl, attribute this decline primarily to two significant decisions made by Starmer’s administration: alterations to the winter fuel allowance and the controversial early release of prisoners. These decisions have created backlash among various demographics, particularly pensioners and victims of crime, who feel directly affected by the government’s policies.
One of the major decisions that has impacted Starmer’s approval is the tightening of eligibility rules for winter fuel payments, which has resulted in approximately 10 million pensioners being denied financial support for heating their homes during the winter months. This move has drawn considerable criticism, particularly from vulnerable segments of the population who rely on this assistance for basic needs. In addition to this, Starmer’s government faced further scrutiny due to the announcement that thousands of prisoners, including serious offenders such as convicted killers and kidnappers, would be released after serving only 40% of their sentences. This decision was framed by the government as necessary to alleviate prison overcrowding, yet the public reaction has been largely negative, fueled by images of released criminals expressing gratitude toward Starmer.
In the wake of these controversial policies, Starmer attempted to navigate public dissatisfaction by acknowledging the “anger” felt by the populace while maintaining that the decisions were unavoidable. This nuance in his response, however, may not have resonated well with the public, as many citizens have seen rising crime rates in conjunction with unrest over immigration laws and anti-Islamophobia protests. The backlash reached a new intensity with the sentencing of individuals involved in several anti-immigration riots and online incitements, an issue that has further complicated Starmer’s standing in the eyes of the electorate.
As the political landscape continues to shift, Starmer is poised to face a significant challenge ahead of his first budget presentation, scheduled for an upcoming Wednesday. There is mounting apprehension among the public regarding proposed tax hikes that are intended to fund healthcare and housing expenditures. A significant portion of respondents from the More in Common poll expressed their worries, with 68% stating their concerns about the budget and a staggering 70% indicating that they believe conditions in the UK are worsening overall. This economic uncertainty adds to the complex environment in which Starmer must operate as he seeks to restore public confidence in his leadership.
Ultimately, Starmer’s rapid descent in popularity highlights the fragility of political capital, particularly in the face of contentious policy decisions that resonate with the electorate. Political analysts suggest that a combination of perceived failures in governance and inability to connect with core voter concerns has left Starmer in a precarious position. As Labour attempts to redefine itself and regain trust after years of internal strife and shifting political dynamics, the pressure mounts on Starmer to find solutions that will not only address pressing societal issues but also stabilize his connection with the public.
