A recent survey conducted by the National Catholic Reporter reveals that former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris among Catholic voters in critical swing states. The poll, which surveyed Catholic voters across seven key battleground states—Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona—indicates a clear lead for Trump. The data shows that Trump garners 50 percent support from Catholic voters, compared to Harris’s 45 percent. This advantage is significant as these states are essential for securing electoral votes and are typically characterized by their competitive political landscape.
When examining the results in individual states, Trump’s support among Catholic voters is particularly pronounced. In Wisconsin, for example, he boasts a substantial lead with 57 percent support, while Harris trails at 39 percent. Similar trends are seen in other states such as Arizona, where Trump leads by eight points—51 percent to 43 percent—and has a narrow one-point edge in North Carolina. Additionally, Trump enjoys support in states like Georgia and Michigan, where he also holds a lead among Catholic voters. This trend suggests that his appeal extends into diverse demographic groups within the electorate.
Despite Trump’s overall advantage, Harris shows some strength in Nevada and Pennsylvania, where she leads by a narrow margin. In Pennsylvania, for instance, the data suggests Harris is up by one point. The importance of these states cannot be overstated, as they are vital to the electoral map and the future of both candidates’ campaigns. The shifting margins in key demographics highlight the competitive nature of the upcoming election and underscore the need for both campaigns to adapt their strategies accordingly.
The survey delves deeper than just candidate preference, as it also reveals the priorities of Catholic voters regarding the most pressing election issues. The economy tops the list, with 75 percent of respondents identifying it as their primary concern when making their electoral decision. This is followed by immigration and border control at 60 percent, and healthcare at 53 percent. The emphasis on economic issues is particularly relevant in the context of ongoing political discussions, informing how both candidates might tailor their platforms to resonate with voters within this demographic group.
The poll sampled a total of 1,172 Catholic voters from the aforementioned states, and was conducted by Mercury Analytics between October 3 and 8, 2023. With a margin of error of plus or minus 2.86 percent, the survey is a valuable snapshot of current voter sentiment among Catholics, particularly in swing states, which could determine the outcome of the election. This polling effort is significant as it is the first to focus exclusively on Catholic voters in these battleground areas, highlighting their influence in the electoral process.
Trump’s campaign is reportedly in a strong position according to James Blair, who oversees political operations for the Trump campaign. He asserts that recent public polling data indicates that Trump is performing better than in previous elections, suggesting a favorable trajectory for his candidacy. Blair’s comments highlight a sense of confidence within the campaign, emphasizing that they are on the offensive while framing Harris’s campaign as defensive. This dynamic reflects the ongoing strategic battle between the two candidates, as they each seek to solidify support among key voter demographics leading up to the election.
