The recent unrest in Lebanon has prompted warnings from French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu, who stated that the country risks collapsing into civil war due to escalating tensions, particularly linked to ongoing conflicts involving Israel and the militant group Hezbollah. Lebanon, which experienced French governance throughout much of the 20th century, has become a focal point of violence in the region, exacerbated by Israel’s military operations following a deadly incursion by Hamas in October. Lecornu emphasized, during an interview with LCI news, that achieving a ceasefire in Lebanon is paramount for maintaining collective security in the region, given the already volatile situation exacerbated by periodic exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah.
As the conflict persists, the humanitarian crisis in Lebanon has worsened significantly, with the United Nations Refugee Agency reporting that approximately one million individuals have been displaced from their homes. The Lebanese Health Ministry has reported nearly 2,500 casualties resulting from Israeli airstrikes on Lebanese territories. Lecornu articulated a deep concern regarding the possibility of a new civil war erupting in Lebanon, reflecting the fears that the nation could experience further collapse amid ongoing hostilities and the dire impact on its infrastructure and public safety.
French President Emmanuel Macron has also voiced concerns, calling on the United States and European Union to halt arms deliveries to Israel in a bid to foster a political resolution to the pervasive crisis affecting the region. He underscored the similar threats facing Lebanon as those experienced in Gaza, indicating the potential for Lebanon to face severe humanitarian and security repercussions if international attention is not directed towards resolving the conflict. Macron’s remarks come amid preparations for an upcoming international conference in Paris aimed at mobilizing global support for Lebanese people and their state institutions, with an emphasis on providing humanitarian aid amid the crisis.
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati is expected to address the conference, seeking security assistance for the country’s army and internal security forces. The intent behind these collaborative efforts is to bolster support for Lebanon’s institutions, which have been significantly compromised due to the ongoing violence and destabilization in the region. Hezbollah, which holds significant political power in Lebanon along with its military capabilities, adds complexity to the situation. Their military wing is believed to be more formidable than the Lebanese Army itself, showcasing the intricate power dynamics at play in the country.
The dire situation has prompted assertions from the Israeli Foreign Ministry and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), who claim that airstrikes have successfully targeted and eliminated key military leaders of Hezbollah. The reported death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah adds weight to these claims, illustrating the intensity and strategic nature of Israel’s military operations in the face of ongoing threats from the group situated along its northern border. This cycle of violence raises questions of accountability and strategic implications for both Lebanon and Israel as the conflict continues to evolve.
Lebanon’s historical context also plays a significant role in understanding its current predicament. Following French control starting in 1920, Lebanon gained formal independence in November 1943, although the true extent of its autonomy wasn’t achieved until French troops withdrew fully in August 1946. The longstanding legacy of external influence and governance continues to shape the national landscape as Lebanon grapples with internal divisions among sectarian groups, external pressures, and the challenges of a rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation, setting the stage for further conflict if immediate international intervention does not take place.
