As the 2024 presidential election nears its conclusion, final polls reveal a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, particularly in crucial swing states. Nationally, the candidates are nearly neck-and-neck with neither able to establish a clear lead—reflecting a persistent stalemate in the electoral map. Key battlegrounds that will heavily influence the election outcome include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Throughout the campaign, the polls in these states have showcased a remarkably close contest, with results indicating slight fluctuations but no definitive breakaway by either candidate with just a day to go before voters head to the polls.
Recent New York Times/Siena College surveys highlight how Harris maintains a narrow lead among likely voters in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, whereas the candidates are equally matched in Pennsylvania and Michigan. In Arizona, however, Trump is ahead by a four-point margin. Particularly in the Sun Belt states, encompassing Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, the economy remains a pressing issue that drives voter sentiment. Harris’s campaign effectively revitalized the Democrats’ positions in these states, which had previously leaned toward Trump during Biden’s tenure as the presumptive nominee. Voter demographics reveal that Black voters are expected to play a decisive role, especially in Georgia and North Carolina, where turnout efforts are intensifying to galvanize support for Harris.
In Georgia, Harris has garnered 48% of the vote compared to Trump’s 47%. More significantly, over 4 million residents have cast early ballots in the state, and among these, more than 1 million are Black voters—a demographic crucial for Harris’s success. North Carolina follows a similar trajectory where historical trends pose challenges for Democrats, as the last presidential win for the party dated back to Obama’s victory in 2008. State efforts to enhance turnout in stronghold urban areas like Charlotte and Raleigh could tip the scales. Meanwhile, in Nevada, Latino voters are paramount as issues such as housing and inflation shape their political perspective, with Trump potentially seeking to sway this demographic to reclaim a state that hasn’t supported a Republican nominee since 2004.
In contrast, the northern Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania remain hotly contested with no clear frontrunner. Here, Harris leads by a slim margin of 49% to 47% in Wisconsin, while Michigan and Pennsylvania each show a tie at 47% and 48%, respectively. Harris’s strategy focuses on appealing to working-class and minority voters, while Trump aims to chip away at their support, acknowledging that even minor shifts could prove crucial. The results echo sentiments of 2020 when Biden successfully claimed these three states, but there’s concern amongst Democrats regarding the potential for Trump to regain ground in the Midwest.
In Iowa, a recent poll indicates Harris holds a modest three-point advantage in a traditionally Republican-leaning state, suggesting she may perform better than anticipated in the Blue Wall region. Meanwhile, Arizona presents a unique challenge, with Trump enjoying a broader lead—his highest across the polled states. Persistent themes such as the economy and immigration resonate more with Arizona voters, traditionally favorable to Trump, while concerns about democracy and reproductive rights, which benefit Harris, remain significant. A generational divide appears as well; Harris performs well with younger voters, yet Trump displays strength among senior citizens.
The final moments of the campaign spotlight a stark gender gap: Harris leads female voters by 16 points, while Trump has a commanding 18-point advantage with male voters. Current NBC polls indicate a tie among registered voters at 49% each for both candidates, setting the stage for a potentially low turnout or switch in voter demographics on Election Day. Early voting trends suggest that women have outnumbered men, though uncertainty remains about whether this trend will carry through to the final vote. As election day approaches, it becomes increasingly evident that engagement and turnout among these key demographics will critically influence the outcome of this closely contested race.
