Following the recent elections, there was widespread anticipation of a significant surge in migrant crossings at the southern U.S. border, particularly if Trump won. However, contrary to expectations, there has not been a dramatic increase in illegal crossings since the November 5 election. A Customs and Border Protection (CBP) source has indicated that while there has been a slight uptick in crossings, the situation is manageable. Border Patrol agents, though feeling the pinch of increasing border activity, are presently enjoying a respite, attributed to ongoing law enforcement and military interventions in Mexico that restrict the movement of migrants towards the U.S. border.
A pivotal factor mitigating against a substantial rise in crossings has been the implementation of non-Congressionally approved strategies employed by the Biden-Harris administration. These programs provide legal avenues for over two thousand migrants to enter the United States via official ports of entry and international airports, subsequently decreasing reliance on illegal crossings. However, intelligence reports hint at a brewing pressure in southern Mexico that may lead to a future surge. Consequently, law enforcement officials in Texas are actively preparing for a potential final wave of migrants before the inauguration of Trump, which raises concerns regarding the efficacy of current border management practices.
Significantly, the Mexican National Institute of Migration (INM) and the National Guard have been playing crucial roles in controlling the flow of migrants. Their combined efforts have largely curbed the historic usage of dangerous freight trains, known as “La Bestia,” which migrants previously utilized to traverse Mexico towards the U.S. border quickly and at little cost. Although there are indications of ongoing use of these trains, the numbers have diminished dramatically due to heightened enforcement aimed at keeping migrants from taking this perilous route. Without access to the trains, many migrants are now dependent on costly human smugglers, which further constrains the number of individuals making their way to the border.
In late December, a strategic enforcement effort by Mexican authorities saw a notable decline in crossings, coinciding with an undisclosed agreement between the Biden administration and the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). As reported by various sources, including Breitbart Texas, this arrangement contributed to a stark drop in migrant crossings along the southwest border. However, the reported reduction in the presence of Mexican immigration officials and National Guard soldiers at key checkpoints in the northern states of Mexico raises concerns about the fragility of this progress. Observations of reduced border enforcement in places like Piedras Negras have left local and U.S. authorities apprehensive about a potential return to previous high volumes of crossings.
Experts suggest that the key to maintaining low migrant crossing numbers lies in the persistence of Mexican law enforcement pressure on the routes favored by migrants. The CBP source indicated that should Mexico cease its enforcement efforts, a rush of thousands of migrants could occur almost instantaneously, mirroring previous situations. There’s an undercurrent of understanding on the part of Mexican officials regarding the importance of border control in avoiding strained relations with the incoming Trump administration, which is known for advocating stringent immigration policies.
Finally, insights from specific migrant shelters, such as those visited by Breitbart Texas in Piedras Negras, indicate that current arrival rates have not yet reached alarming levels. Most migrants at these sites had secured legal entry through the Biden administration’s programs, indicating that illegal crossings were not yet the preferred method of entry. However, there are reports of increased crossings in the Eagle Pass area, particularly involving unaccompanied minors and migrants categorized as Special Interest Aliens, who tend to coordinate with cartels to navigate their journey through Mexico. The potential for dramatic shifts in border dynamics continues to loom, particularly if enforcement in southern Mexico is relaxed, underlining the complex interplay of migrant flows, policy decisions, and international collaboration on border issues.
