The Biden administration has announced its intention to recognize and support a new Syrian government as long as it repudiates terrorism, eliminates its chemical weapons stockpiles, and upholds the rights of minorities and women. Secretary of State Antony Blinken outlined this qualified support, emphasizing the need for a smooth transition away from President Bashar Assad’s administration. Although the U.S. has not detailed the specific groups it will work with in Syria, discussions with the prominent Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), classified as a terrorist organization since 2012, are not being ruled out. This engagement underscores the administration’s focus on preventing the resurgence of the Islamic State while also maintaining support for Israel during its military operations in Syria.
The prospect of Assad’s ouster has placed President Biden’s administration in a precarious position concerning Middle Eastern politics. In this evolving landscape, the administration is tasked with delicately balancing support for a post-Assad government while simultaneously addressing the growing threats from extremist groups. Blinken emphasized that any new Syrian government must honor commitments to respect minority rights, facilitate humanitarian aid, and secure and destroy chemical weapons. These stipulations highlight the need for a transitional government that enjoys legitimacy and support from both the Syrian populace and the international community without foreign interference.
The rapid collapse of Assad’s government followed recent offensives by HTS, raising questions about the future of Syria and its implications for U.S. foreign policy. The State Department noted a willingness to reconsider HTS’s classification if the group takes significant steps away from its current terrorist activities. Analysts have suggested that HTS has shown signs of moderation, as indicated by its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, who has refrained from engaging in severe acts of violence against former regime officials. The evolving dynamics regarding HTS raise critical questions for U.S. strategic interests in the region, particularly concerning the containment of ISIS and the security of U.S. allies.
Enhancing the complexity of the situation, the White House has expressed support for Israel’s military actions targeting Syrian military assets and alleged chemical weapons facilities. This includes the Israeli acquisition of a buffer zone in the Golan Heights post-Assad. The U.S. has reaffirmed its backing of the 1974 disengagement agreement regarding Golan Heights but has not contested Israel’s actions. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has defended these operations as necessary for national security, contending that the collapse of the Assad regime requires Israel to reassess its previous agreements with Syria.
Meanwhile, regional responses to Israel’s actions have been mixed, with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar condemning the Israeli military’s advances in Golan Heights. These tensions highlight the enduring geopolitical rivalries in the Middle East as powers navigate their positions following major shifts in Syrian governance. U.S. support for Israel has traditionally been a cornerstone of its Middle Eastern policy, yet the ongoing instability poses challenges for both American and Israeli strategic interests.
In light of the developments in Syria, Biden is sending National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan to confer with Israeli leaders about the ongoing conflict and the broader regional implications. Sullivan’s meetings also extend to discussions on the situation of American hostages held by Hamas amidst the backdrop of violence in Gaza. The U.S. is hopeful that the alignment of events in Syria could create favorable conditions for negotiations with Hamas, potentially leading to a much-needed resolution of conflict in Gaza. While the road ahead remains uncertain, the evolving situation in Syria could serve as a significant factor in both regional stability and the broader U.S. foreign policy approach in the Middle East.