The upcoming election sees Donald Trump proposing “the largest deportation operation in American history” as he pivots away from the contentious border policies of Joe Biden. In response to increasing criticisms of Biden’s approach, Kamala Harris has also recalibrated her stance to support stricter border controls and limit the influx of asylum seekers. However, both candidates appear to overlook the complexities and realities of U.S. immigration. Immigration plays a crucial role in maintaining the economic structure, particularly by providing a workforce that many sectors rely on heavily. The need for a flexible, low-cost workforce is critical; the absence of migrant labor could lead to inflated costs and decreased productivity, ultimately harming the economic landscape that American consumers have come to rely on.
According to Zeke Hernandez, an economics professor at the Wharton School, Trump’s proposals could serve as an economic disaster, not just for the immigrants impacted but also for American citizens. The ongoing retirement of baby boomers further exacerbates the situation, leading to a shortage of workers that job markets struggle to fill. Employers would need to hire around 240,000 individuals monthly to offset the exiting workforce. Hernandez, the author of “The Truth About Immigration,” emphasizes the integral contributions of immigrant labor to the economy, which encompass talent, investment, innovation, consumption, and tax revenue. The removal of these elements would not only decrease available jobs but also lead to economic contraction and diminished diversification.
Focusing on the undocumented immigrant labor force, estimates suggest that there are between 8 to 9 million undocumented individuals in essential roles within the U.S. economy. Industries such as agriculture and construction, along with sectors that require skilled labor like plumbing, rely significantly on this labor pool. Hernandez indicates that if these ‘bottleneck’ workers were removed, American workers would face hurdles in performing their own jobs, which could amplify labor shortages. A study by the Center for Migration Studies estimates that undocumented workers contribute about $97 billion in taxes, so their mass deportation could have dire consequences for local economies, potentially affecting nearly 10 million U.S. citizens and pushing families into financial distress.
Additionally, the profound familial impact of deportation policies cannot be overlooked. With about 5.8 million U.S. households including at least one undocumented adult, mass deportations could displace nearly 5 million families. The cost of raising American-born children left behind by deported caregivers is estimated at a staggering $116 billion, a burden likely to fall on taxpayers. A CBS News analysis suggests that deporting just a million undocumented migrants could result in costs nearing $20 billion, all of which would take substantially longer to execute than a typical four-year presidential term. Despite fears of political retribution, some business leaders have expressed concern over these proposed deportations.
In the construction industry specifically, which employs about 1.5 million undocumented workers—13% of its total workforce—loss of this labor could drive up home prices, worsening an already critical housing crisis. The National Association of Home Builders has declared foreign-born labor, irrespective of legal status, as an essential element of both labor supply and flexibility within the industry. The CEO of the National Association of Home Builders warns that losing these workers would derail efforts to provide affordable housing. The Business Roundtable adds that immigrants significantly contribute to America’s innovative capabilities. While there is a consensus among economists on the net benefits of immigration to the economy, it is pointed out that the existing system for integrating important foreign labor is broken.
Historical examples of mass deportation efforts, like Obama’s Secure Communities program, highlight the negative impacts of such measures. While the initiative led to the deportation of an estimated 500,000 individuals, studies suggest that any perceived benefits, such as reduced job competition, were outweighed by declining labor demand and increased labor costs. The same pattern emerged during the Trump and Biden administrations amid the COVID-19 pandemic, as a significant reduction in immigration operations led to labor shortages that contributed to inflationary pressures. Hernandez posits that the post-pandemic resurgence in immigration has significantly helped to rein in inflation by enabling businesses to hire and meet labor demands again.
The Latino community holds a critical role in this discussion as demographic shifts show growth in Latino workforce participation, placing them as a primary contributor to the nation’s economic vitality. Information from the Labor Department projects that the number of Latino workers is expected to soar to 36 million by 2030. This demographic evolution implies that by 2030, Latinos will constitute about 21.2% of the labor force, accounting for a substantial portion of net new workers. Analysts argue that immigration is vital to maintaining standards of living, with A Latino Donor Collaborative leader asserting that the food variety enjoyed routinely in the U.S. is a direct result of immigration. Both Trump and Harris must alter their narrative to understand and embrace the expansive economic contributions made by Latino workers; failing to do so risks alienating a key voter demographic and jeopardizing the economy’s overall health.
