In a recent NBC News poll released just weeks before the 2024 Presidential Election, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris find themselves in a tight race, with each receiving 48% support among registered voters. This marks a notable shift from the previous month when Harris held a five-point lead over Trump. Trump’s recent gain in support is attributed to Republican voters rallying behind him following a tumultuous debate and a prior polling disadvantage, alongside a growing positive perception of his time in office. Meanwhile, Harris faces declining popularity, particularly among independents and younger voters, which has contributed to the current deadlock. The poll reveals crucial insights, including the significant sway of abortion as a motivating issue for voters as they prepare to head to the polls.
The dynamics of the race highlight the complex voter landscape, with an apparent gender gap showcasing stark differences in support for the candidates. While Harris leads among Black voters, younger voters, and white voters with college degrees, Trump enjoys strong backing from rural voters and white voters without college degrees. This is further accentuated by a pronounced gender divide: women support Harris by a substantial 14-point margin, whereas men favor Trump by a 16-point margin. The survey also illustrates that independent voters are largely split between the candidates, demonstrating the crucial role that this demographic will play as Election Day approaches.
Amidst this electoral contest, Harris’ popularity has waned significantly since September, where she recorded a net positive approval rating for the first time in months after the Harris-Trump debate. In the latest poll, her approval rating stands at 43% positive to 49% negative. In contrast, Trump’s popularity has seen an uptick, with a similar approval rating of 43% positive and 51% negative. This rise in Trump’s positive rating indicates how voters’ retrospective view of Trump’s presidency contrasts sharply with the ongoing assessment of Biden’s current administration.
Furthermore, the poll exposes distinct perceptions of Biden’s presidency against Trump’s, with voters divided on whether Biden’s policies have benefited or harmed their families. Only 25% of voters affirm that Biden’s presidency has helped them, whereas 45% feel it has hurt them. Conversely, nearly half of respondents view Trump’s past presidency in a more favorable light, indicating a notable approval rating of 48%. This reflects a growing concern among voters regarding Harris continuing Biden’s legacy, with 43% expressing apprehension about her alignment with Biden’s policies compared to 41% who worry about Trump’s potential return to his previous approach.
Abortion emerges as a top motivational issue for voters heading into the election, registering as a significant driver for Harris, who leads Trump by a considerable margin in this area. Though the issue of cost of living typically ranks high in voter concerns, abortion stands out in terms of intensity for potential voters. The survey results indicate that 22% of respondents would vote solely based on their stance on abortion, evidencing how this issue could galvanize support for Harris, particularly among women and younger voters. Despite trailing Trump in several key issues such as border security and the cost of living, Harris’ leading position on abortion, healthcare, and overall competence could be pivotal as the election nears.
Finally, the poll reveals deep-seated apprehensions regarding the upcoming election’s impact on voters’ lives, with a historical 62% expressing that the outcome will make a “great deal of difference.” As both major political parties stand at a tie regarding congressional preferences, and with a substantial portion of the electorate believing the nation is on the wrong track, the stakes are undeniably high. With 31% feeling the country is headed in the right direction, the outcome of the presidential election could sway the national trajectory significantly. As individuals from both parties prepare for what promises to be a contentious campaign season, the coming weeks will be critical for both candidates to clarify their messages, connect with undecided voters, and respond to the pressing issues dominating the public consciousness.