The upcoming U.S. presidential election holds monumental importance, not just for Americans but also for the global populace of approximately 7.9 billion who lack a vote in the matter. The contrasting styles and policies of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris suggest that the election’s outcome could substantially influence international relations and policy over the coming years. Thomas Shannon Jr., a veteran diplomat, noted that the election comes at a time of significant debate in the U.S. regarding American power’s role in the world. A Harris administration might offer predictability and stability to allies, while Trump’s return could inject an element of unpredictability, which could be unsettling for both friends and foes alike.
Global observers, particularly from Beijing, are attuned to the election’s potential ramifications. Dong Wang, an international studies professor, highlighted the starkly different visions both candidates have for international order. While Harris might provide continuity reminiscent of the Biden administration, Trump is expected to reintroduce chaos, especially concerning economic relations and trade policies. Concerns in China center around Trump’s prior trade war, which imposed significant tariffs and aimed to restrict China’s economic ascendance. Despite a relatively resilient U.S. economy, China’s growth trajectory suggests a potential to surpass the U.S. economically in the future, keeping tensions high as both countries vie for influence.
European nations, in particular, are apprehensive about the potential implications of a second Trump term. The former president’s history of questioning climate science, threatening longstanding alliances, and praising authoritarian leaders raises alarms within the EU. Experts fear that should Trump resume office and withdraw support from NATO, European nations may face grave challenges, particularly regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine. Trump’s critical stance on U.S. financial aid to Ukraine contrasts sharply with his previous relationships with Eastern European allies and his more aggressive rhetoric toward Russia. The prospect of U.S. withdrawal from NATO would echo pre-World War II sentiments, leading to fears of increasing Russian aggression.
Conversely, a Harris presidency is seen as likely to uphold traditional support for Ukraine while continuing U.S. military and financial assistance to Israel. Harris’s nuanced stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict offers compassion toward Palestinians amidst ongoing violence, marking a potential departure from the previous administration’s more unilateral support for Israel. However, her administration would still guarantee Israel’s right to self-defense, deepening the complexities around U.S. involvement in these global conflicts while facing domestic pressure regarding humanitarian concerns, particularly in the wake of the ongoing crisis in Gaza.
Additionally, the U.S.’s relationship with an array of swing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Brazil reflects the broader geopolitical shifts that the election signifies. While there’s a split allegiance towards either the U.S. or China among these nations, they hold critical resources and strategic importance that could affect global stability. Some observers within these circles express optimism regarding a Trump victory, perceiving it as a potential boon for economic growth. However, concerns linger about how such shifts in leadership could affect existing international partnerships and alliances.
Finally, the overarching theme of this election underscores a transition from the traditional post-World War II order as global power dynamics evolve. Experts note that regardless of who emerges victorious, the U.S.’s moral authority and soft power are poised for a continued decline, albeit at different rates under Harris or Trump. The forthcoming leadership in the White House will not hold the same hegemonic influence enjoyed in the past, suggesting that the international community is on the brink of a transformative era marked by uncertainty and instability at a global scale.
