In the recent presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris aimed to establish her candidacy as the Democratic nominee, largely drawing from a historically strong Democratic base known as the “blue wall,” which comprises Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states have traditionally supported Democratic candidates since 1992. However, the landscape shifted in 2016 when Donald Trump successfully penetrated this blue wall, winning all three states and ultimately blocking Hillary Clinton from the presidency. In 2020, Joe Biden, with Harris as his running mate, managed to reclaim these critical states, but the 2024 election saw Trump regaining control over them, which proved detrimental to Harris’s presidential aspirations.
Harris’s campaign strategy included extensive visits to Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, key battlegrounds where her candidacy needed to resonate with voters. Despite showing up in these pivotal states, Harris ultimately fell short in her electoral bid. In terms of electoral votes, she secured 226 while Trump garnered 312, finishing 44 votes behind. The narrow losses in these states illustrate how small margins can wield significant influence in presidential elections: a deficit of 1.4 points in Michigan, 2.1 points in Pennsylvania, and 0.9 points in Wisconsin were pivotal for Trump’s victory. Harris failed to gain traction in other swing states, making it impossible for her to piece together the needed electoral alliances following the collapse of the blue wall.
Suburban voters, who had historically leaned Democratic in the past few election cycles, were another focus of Harris’s campaign, as Democrats anticipated a repeat of the trends observed in 2018, 2020, and 2022. However, unlike the previous years when Biden had a slight edge in the suburbs, Trump managed to flip this demographic, winning suburban voters by a margin of four points in 2024. While Harris performed well in targeted key counties such as Oakland County in Michigan and Montgomery County in Pennsylvania, these wins were not sufficient to counter Trump’s overwhelming support in rural areas and exurbs, nor his strengthened bonds with minority voters, particularly among Black men and Latino communities.
Adding to Harris’s difficulties was the disappointment and anger many voters expressed regarding the handling of key issues, such as the ongoing conflict in Gaza, which saw Arab American voters in critical areas like Dearborn, Michigan, swing towards Trump. The campaigning phase, which lasted 107 days after Biden stepped aside, was a sprint that further complicated Harris’s attempts to connect deeply with voters across these three states, highlighting the challenges of assembling a winning coalition in such a condensed timeline.
Moreover, the labor vote, which typically offers significant backing to Democratic candidates in the blue wall states, was not as unified behind Harris as anticipated. While she enjoyed the support of many public-sector union leaders and a substantial faction of their members, key unions like the Teamsters and the International Association of Fire Fighters did not endorse her, reflecting a schism among workers, particularly within the ranks. In Wisconsin, for instance, Trump captured 51% of union households while Harris only managed to secure 49%. Although she performed better in Michigan and Pennsylvania among union members, it was insufficient to translate into the electoral support needed for victory.
Harris’s message centered around addressing the concerns of working- and middle-class Americans, which included a focus on union worker needs. However, Trump maintained an advantage concerning economic issues, which resonated strongly with voters. According to exit polls, the economy was the foremost concern for a significant portion of the electorate, leading to an 80% preference for Trump among those who prioritized this issue. The combination of Harris’s limited appeal in crucial demographics, the fallout from the Gaza situation, and the fractured labor support culminated in a campaign that ultimately could not reclaim the essential blue wall states, sealing her fate in the presidential race.