Recent analysis from the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) highlights a concerning trend regarding labor force participation among native-born Americans. Despite a growing economy, tens of millions of native-born individuals are currently out of the labor market, coinciding with a surge in immigration that has contributed to all net job growth in the past year. This analysis spans from 1960 to 2024 and reveals a substantial decline in labor force engagement among native-born citizens, which has intensified as immigration levels have soared. Steven Camarota, the director of research at CIS, emphasizes that the reliance on immigrant workers has allowed the nation to overlook an ongoing decline in native labor participation.
The statistics are striking: as of April 2024, approximately 43 million native-born Americans aged 16 to 64 are not active in the labor force, marking an increase of about 8.5 million since the year 2000. A critical aspect of this decline is the stark rise in the percentage of native-born American men who are not participating in the workforce. In April 1960, this figure was just 11 percent, but it has now escalated to 22 percent. This shift signifies that if the labor force participation rate among these men were akin to levels in the 1960s, the workforce would boast an additional 9 million participants, underscoring an alarming trend in workforce disengagement.
Additionally, the situation is particularly alarming for prime-age native-born men—the demographic most expected to be in the labor force. Their non-participation rate has increased from 4 percent in April 1960 to 12 percent in April 2024. Meanwhile, a recent report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals that while the workforce has seen a reduction of 1.1 million native-born Americans since last year, over 400,000 foreign-born workers have secured jobs. This striking contrast illustrates not only the disparity in job growth but also a growing dependence on foreign labor to fill positions within the economy.
Economists like E.J. Antoni from the Heritage Foundation have emphasized that all net job growth over the past five years has been absorbed by foreign-born individuals. Native-born employment has not returned to pre-pandemic levels and currently sits 619,000 below what it was prior to the pandemic. In contrast, foreign-born employment has returned to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. This stark divergence paints a troubling picture for the native workforce, where opportunities have diminished while foreign-born individuals benefit from the job recovery that has thus far eluded their native counterparts.
The current immigration policies under President Joe Biden have reached a tipping point, with the nation’s foreign-born population now hitting a historical high of 52 million, representing roughly 15.5 percent of the total U.S. population. Analysts warn that if immigration levels are not curtailed, projections show this figure could balloon to 82.2 million by 2040. The ramifications of these trends speak to the broader implications on wages, economic growth, and policy direction regarding welfare systems. A reduction in immigration could theoretically lead to wage increases, which might incentivize native-born Americans to return to the workforce, as well as prompting essential reforms in welfare and disability programs.
As the dialogue continues around labor participation and immigration policy, the data presented underscores the importance of addressing these trends. The interplay between native-born individuals’ labor force engagement and foreign-born job absorption raises fundamental questions about the sustainability of current immigration strategies. Going forward, a comprehensive evaluation of both immigration and employment policies may be essential to ensure that native-born Americans have the opportunity to contribute meaningfully to the workforce and the overall economy.