Recent polling in the UK suggests that a political revolution reminiscent of Donald Trump’s rise in the United States may be underway, particularly among young men. A survey conducted by Jim Blagden, associate director at the More In Common polling consultancy, reveals that 50% of men aged 18 to 35 would vote for Trump if they had the opportunity. This striking statistic highlights a significant disconnect between the preferences of these young voters and the political offerings available to them in the UK, with only 25% of the same demographic expressing support for the Conservative Party or Reform UK during the last general election in July.
The survey results indicate that Trump’s appeal extends beyond demographics, attracting young men, ethnic minorities (22%), and a notable percentage of university graduates (38%). Blagden remarked on this phenomenon, pointing out that young men are disillusioned with the current offerings of the UK Conservatives, while simultaneously feeling drawn to Trump’s political persona. This trend mirrors a similar shift observed in the United States, where Trump garnered unprecedented support from young voters during his last campaign, outperforming Democratic candidate Kamala Harris among men under 30. This paints a picture of a broader generational shift that could disrupt traditional political alignments.
This development could benefit Nigel Farage, a steadfast ally of Trump, who is keenly focused on cultivating the young voter demographic ahead of the next general election scheduled for 2029. Sharing Trump’s populist policies—especially around immigration—Farage’s party, Reform UK, has resonated with younger voters, particularly through strategic engagement on social media platforms, such as TikTok. Farage has noted that he is experiencing rapid growth in support among Gen-Z voters, and his significant presence on TikTok, where he has accrued over a million followers, reinforces his relevance and appeal among this age group.
Young voters’ attraction to far-right populism has been observed in various parts of Europe, paralleling a global trend. Farage’s experiences resonate with those of other populist leaders, such as French National Rally’s Jordan Bardella, who effectively employed similar social-media strategies in European elections. Furthermore, Charlie Kirk, the director of Turning Point USA, highlighted TikTok as a major player in reaching demographics that have traditionally been harder to engage through conventional methods, showcasing its effectiveness in rallying support for Trump.
Beyond the shores of the UK, surveys indicate a rightward shift in the political landscape amongst younger individuals in Europe. The Shell Youth Study reports that one in four young men now identify as right-wing, a noticeable increase from less than one in five in 2019, coinciding with rising support for populist parties like Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD), which now ranks as the most popular party among voters aged 14 to 29. This underscores a worrying shift towards populism and right-wing politics across the continent, revealing a broader societal trend.
In summary, the findings from the UK survey reflect a burgeoning trend that could signify a shift toward populism among young men, paralleling similar movements in Europe and the US. As traditional political parties grapple with the demands and preferences of the younger demographic, figures like Nigel Farage are poised to capitalize on this momentum by leveraging social media and resonating with disenchanted voters. The implications of this trend could redefine the political landscape, not only in the UK but potentially across Europe, signaling a critical moment for established political structures as new, populist voices gain traction among younger generations.