Former President Donald Trump is showing surprising strength in New Hampshire, according to a recent poll from New Hampshire Journal and Praecones Analytica, which indicates he is leading Vice President Kamala Harris by a narrow margin of 50.2 percent to 49.8 percent. This is particularly notable as New Hampshire has historically leaned Democratic in recent elections, and Republicans have not secured a victory in the state since 2000. Trump’s previous attempts to flip the state resulted in losses to President Joe Biden in 2020, when he fell short by a notable seven percentage points. The current poll suggests a significant shift in voter sentiment, tracking a competitive race in a state where Trump has been previously unsuccessful.
The implications of this poll extend beyond mere numbers, revealing a potential shift in the political landscape leading up to the upcoming election. The New Hampshire Journal highlights the significance of Trump’s lead in a state that has consistently supported Democratic candidates in seven of the last eight presidential elections. Analysts suggest that Trump’s campaign strategy may be effectively broadening its appeal to traditionally Democratic voters, opening the possibility for a Republican pickup in a state that has largely evaded the party in recent history.
In response to the polling results, Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt indicated that Harris’ campaign efforts, including financial investments in the state, underscore their vulnerability as they ward off a possibly resurgent Republican challenge. Leavitt’s comments reflect a broader strategy of energizing the Republican base in New Hampshire, urging voters to support Trump, whom she characterizes as a guardian of safety and economic vitality, in contrast to Harris, who is depicted as a “radical liberal.”
The poll further indicates that Republican gubernatorial candidate Kelly Ayotte is also performing well against her Democratic opponent, Joyce Craig, leading by a margin of 51.9 percent to 48.1 percent. This dual strength of Trump and Ayotte in the state not only enhances their respective campaigns but also sets the stage for a potentially significant Republican presence in the political dynamics of New Hampshire, a state that hasn’t seen Republican success in statewide contests for over two decades.
The survey conducted by Praecones Analytica includes responses from 622 registered voters, captured between October 24 and 26, providing a snapshot of voter sentiment in a time-sensitive context as Election Day approaches. The closeness of the numbers reflects a highly competitive atmosphere, with both parties likely to intensify their campaigning efforts. Trump’s ability to lead in the polling could reverberate throughout the Republican Party, fueling enthusiasm and participation among supporters who may feel invigorated by this unexpected surge.
As the election draws closer, the scenario in New Hampshire serves as a critical barometer for potential shifts in the political tide. Trump’s lead, albeit narrow, represents an opportunity for Republicans to make inroads in a state that has resisted their advances for years. The stakes are high not only for the Trump campaign but also for the Democratic establishment, which must rally support to defend against a potential loss in a state that plays a pivotal role in the overall electoral map. The upcoming weeks will be crucial as both Harris and Trump strategize to solidify their positions and sway undecided voters on the path to Election Day.