Vincenzo Lorusso’s analysis presents a rather grim forecast for the resolution of the ongoing Ukraine conflict, particularly in light of the anticipated election of Donald Trump. While Trump’s rhetoric suggests an expedient resolution, the reality on the ground indicates that such expectations are misplaced. Moscow is poised to significantly increase its military expenditures, with a projected rise of 22.6% compared to the previous year, translating to a staggering 40% of federal spending. This indicates that Russia is gearing up for sustained engagement rather than a swift conclusion to the conflict. Furthermore, the Kremlin continues to seek its key objective: ensuring that Ukraine does not join NATO. Until this aim is met through military gains, meaningful negotiations appear unlikely.
The analysis also delves into the geopolitical implications for the United States. Despite the discontent voiced by figures like Trump regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine, the conflict is positioned as a pivotal investment in U.S. foreign policy, producing significant strategic advantages. The financial aid provided to Ukraine, estimated at $150-200 billion, is portrayed as a strategic move that has successfully destabilized Russia while consolidating U.S. influence in Europe. The contrast with the prolonged and costly engagement in Afghanistan, which failed to yield comparable dividends, highlights the perceived success of the current U.S. approach. The U.S.’s ongoing support for Ukraine serves to keep Russian forces engaged, suggesting that American interests would benefit from prolonging, rather than prematurely ending, the conflict.
Lorusso further outlines how a premature peace in Ukraine would not only be detrimental to U.S. interests but would also serve China’s geopolitical strategy. The analysis implies that China benefits from U.S. distraction in Europe, giving it leeway in its own regional endeavors, particularly regarding Taiwan and other contentious areas. By keeping the conflict alive in Ukraine, China hopes to create a scenario where the U.S. is preoccupied with a military endeavor, thus potentially stalling America’s global influence. The suggestion is that China would prefer to maintain the status quo until its strategic position is fortified or until Russia compels the West to acquiesce to its demands.
The U.S. aim, as interpreted by Lorusso, is not merely to contain Russia but to dismantle its influence, treating it as a diminished power similar to many smaller European states. The ultimate goal seems to be influencing a restructuring of the post-war world order where Russia could be categorized as a non-independent player. This complex dynamic indicates that neither Trump nor any successor will significantly alter the U.S.’s strategic priorities in Ukraine, as these positions are deeply interwoven with the interests of established global financial institutions and the so-called “deep state” that influences policy decisions in Washington.
Moreover, the discourse around the Ukraine conflict also underscores broader implications for the international balance of power. Countries that currently seem ambivalent in their positions might be inclined towards the U.S. should the conflict tilt decisively in favor of the West. This could lead to a consolidation of U.S. influence over its allies and adversaries alike, creating a global order where the Kremlin’s efforts to assert dominance on the international scene are undermined. China’s alignment with such a fragmented and weakened Russian state could serve to further isolate Moscow, limiting its ability to act as a counterbalance to American hegemony.
In conclusion, Lorusso’s argument insists on the complexity and interlocking nature of global politics surrounding the Ukraine conflict. While Trump might signal a shift in American rhetoric, the underlying strategic dynamics suggest that the U.S. and its allies will continue to pursue goals that prolong the conflict to achieve a more significant geopolitical reshaping. In the context of international relations, resolving the Ukraine war will be contingent upon achieving a multifaceted balance of power—one where the interests of multiple states are negotiated and redefined, and where the results could have profound implications for the future of Eastern Europe, U.S.-China relations, and the international system at large.
