In a surprising revelation, a trader known only as “Théo” has come forward to discuss his substantial bets on a Trump election victory, amounting to over $30 million on the Polymarket prediction marketplace. Théo, who maintains his anonymity to protect his wealth from his family and friends, describes himself as a Frenchman with previous trading experience at American banks. In an exclusive interview with the Wall Street Journal, he clarified that his motivation for these massive wagers is purely profit-driven rather than an attempt to influence the election. He emphasized that he holds a strong conviction in his bet, fueled by the belief that past poll inaccuracies will be repeated as they fail to capture the true extent of Trump’s support among voters.
Théo’s confidence stems from his analysis that the current polling methods are not improved compared to previous election cycles where Trump’s support was underestimated. He pointed to the “shy Trump voter effect,” a phenomenon where certain voters may not disclose their support for Trump in surveys. According to Théo, he knows many Americans who are inclined to vote for Trump yet would not openly admit it. This conviction led him to place substantial bets, asserting that he is taking a “directional position” based on his personal views rather than any political agenda—a defense against the speculation that his huge wagers could be part of a narrative-control strategy to favor Trump’s campaign.
Upon learning of the interest surrounding his betting activities, Polymarket took the initiative to examine the situation carefully, contacting experts in the field of election betting to scrutinize Théo’s transactions. They confirmed his identity as a French citizen with an extensive background in finance and trading. Théo, positing that mainstream media narratives may be skewing public perception about the election’s competitiveness, contends that such misleading portrayals could instigate unrest after the elections. His strong position is reflected in not only his bets on Trump winning the electoral college but also on the popular vote and several key swing states.
Théo began his betting strategy discreetly since August, starting with smaller amounts of several million dollars before escalating his stakes. He aimed to minimize the impact of his bets on market pricing, describing how he spread out his wagers over time and employed different accounts to avoid drawing attention to his trading volume. As he increased his investments, he noticed that other traders began to withdraw from quoting prices in response, prompting him to set up multiple accounts under aliases to obscure his activities further. His significant stake in the betting market has made him a dominant figure, with estimates indicating that he holds as much as 25% of the contracts associated with a Trump electoral college victory.
Despite the potential for lucrative returns—up to $80 million if his predictions prove correct—Théo’s large-scale betting has not been without challenges. As market dynamics shifted, Théo saw the value of his contracts fluctuate significantly over time. The odds of a Trump electoral college win, which had previously risen to a high of 76 cents, had fallen back by nearly 25% by the time of his interview, illustrating the unpredictable nature of prediction markets. This volatile environment underscores the complexities inherent in major betting ventures, where a substantial presence can inadvertently alter pricing dynamics within the marketplace.
In a further twist, Théo’s involvement in the Polymarket platform underscores a significant hurdle for American traders. Following regulatory actions from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022, Polymarket has prohibited U.S. citizens from participating in trading activities, thus circumscribing their ability to engage in this unique form of electoral prediction. This restriction contrasts starkly with the expansive betting landscape available to international users like Théo, who leverage such platforms to express their views on political outcomes without the same regulatory concerns.
