A recent poll co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times and the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies suggests that Vice President Kamala Harris could emerge as a leading candidate in California’s gubernatorial race for 2026. With Governor Gavin Newsom facing term limits and unable to seek reelection, the poll indicates that Harris may benefit from significant name recognition. This characteristic gives her an advantage in a race likely to have multiple contenders. According to Mark DiCamillo, the director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, nearly all California voters have an opinion about Harris, which distinguishes her from other potential candidates who lack similar visibility among the electorate.
Despite her potential strength in name recognition, Kamala Harris has not officially announced her intention to run for governor. However, she has previously referenced the possibility with humor. The poll did not assess her potential candidacy against other candidates but focused on her alone. During the survey, which took place before the recent presidential election, California voters expressed varied levels of support for Harris. Approximately 33% stated they were “very likely” to support her, and another 13% indicated they were “somewhat likely” to do so. Conversely, 36% of respondents were “not at all likely” to support her, and a fraction of voters remained undecided.
The poll also highlighted a partisan divide in opinion regarding Harris’ gubernatorial ambitions. A substantial majority of Democrats, 54%, expressed strong support for Harris, with an additional 18% showing some level of likelihood to back her. In stark contrast, a significant 84% of Republican voters indicated that they would not support her candidacy. The registration numbers in California further emphasize the dynamic, as nearly twice as many registered Democrats exist compared to Republicans. Among voters with no stated party affiliation, opinions were more mixed, revealing a slight inclination against Harris, with many expressing indecision about their support.
This poll marks the first comprehensive survey gauging California voters’ sentiments regarding Harris’ potential gubernatorial run. Having been involved in California politics for nearly two decades, Harris has established herself through various roles, including that of district attorney, attorney general, and U.S. senator. Although she opened a campaign account several years ago to gather resources for a potential gubernatorial run, records indicate that she closed this account in 2018. This history suggests a long-term interest in California politics, which may continue to play a role in her future political decisions.
In the analysis of potential candidates for the gubernatorial race, more than half of registered voters reported that they had not yet committed to a favorite candidate. Among those who chose, U.S. Representative Katie Porter emerged as a leading figure, albeit without an official campaign announcement, securing about 13% of participants’ first or second preference. Porter is closely followed by two Republican candidates considered potential contenders: Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and State Senator Brian Dahle, who secured 12% and 11% of voter preferences, respectively. The lack of clear favorites may indicate a relatively open field as the race approaches.
The poll was conducted from October 22 to October 29, gathering responses from a substantial sample size of 4,838 registered California voters, with a margin of error of ±2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. These findings may signal shifts in political dynamics leading up to 2026, as candidates explore their options and strategize for the upcoming race. As the state gears up for this pivotal gubernatorial contest, the interplay between name recognition, party support, and emerging candidates will likely shape the landscape of California politics in the coming years. Harris’s name recognition and political history may work in her favor, but the eventual dynamics of the race remain to be seen.