A recent poll conducted by the Institute for National Defense and Security Research reflects a significant readiness among the Taiwanese population to defend their sovereignty against potential threats from China, particularly an invasion. According to the survey, nearly 70 percent of respondents expressed a willingness to take up arms in the face of a Chinese communist assault, highlighting a deep-seated concern regarding China’s territorial ambitions. The study found that 64 percent of participants viewed these ambitions as a serious threat. Despite this willingness to fight, there remains a significant segment of the population—61 percent—who doubt a Chinese invasion within the next five years, indicating a complex perception of immediate threats to national security.
While the willingness to defend Taiwan is high, confidence in international support, particularly from the United States, appears to be more measured. Over half of those surveyed believed that the U.S. would intervene militarily in the case of an invasion. However, only about 40 percent expected that the U.S. Navy would actively engage to stop a blockade—signifying uncertainty about American commitment and support. This sentiment is complicated by the geopolitical realities surrounding Taiwan, which is recognized as a sovereign entity by its inhabitants but remains in a precarious position due to external pressures, particularly from China. The island operates independently under the Republic of China (Taiwan), maintaining its own democratic institutions and military, yet faces constant threats from the Chinese Communist Party, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory under the “One-China principle.”
The “One-China principle” asserts that Taiwan is not a separate nation, a claim that is vehemently rejected by Taiwanese leadership and citizens. President Xi Jinping has made aggressive statements regarding potential unification efforts, including thinly veiled threats against those who support Taiwanese independence. These tensions manifest through regular military provocations, including harassment from the Chinese Coast Guard. Notably, while Xi has moderated his rhetoric in recent years, his administration continues to promote the idea that any recognition of Taiwan’s independent status is inherently dangerous. This relentless pressure underscores the precarious situation that Taiwan finds itself in, caught between asserting its sovereignty and navigating the threats posed by its much larger neighbor.
Internationally, Taiwan faces an uphill battle for recognition. The majority of world powers, including the U.S., adhere to a cautious approach—recognizing the existence of one China but avoiding endorsement of claims over Taiwan’s independence. The U.S. implements a policy that allows for military sales to Taiwan without fully acknowledging its sovereignty, presenting a complicated diplomatic relationship. This week’s poll reveals an ongoing uncertainty among Taiwanese people regarding American military support amid rising tensions, especially given the mixed messages during President Biden’s administration. Despite his verbal support for Taiwan’s defense, Biden’s administration has occasionally faltered in providing assistance, as evidenced by reports of unserviceable military gear sent to Taiwan.
Amid these tensions, Taiwan marked its National Day, with President Lai Ching-te emphasizing the nation’s sovereignty in a speech intended to reaffirm Taiwanese independence without provoking outright hostility from China. Lai declared that the “People’s Republic of China has no right to represent Taiwan,” underscoring the island’s distinct identity while also advocating for a cooperative approach to global issues like climate change and regional security. His statements reflected an understanding of the delicate balance between asserting national identity and avoiding unnecessary escalation with China, portraying a nuanced response to heightened tensions surrounding Taiwan’s political status.
China’s response to Lai’s speech was predictably aggressive, reiterating its claim over Taiwan and branding the Taiwanese administration as separatist. Chinese officials, including spokesperson Mao Ning, contended that Taiwan’s sovereignty is non-existent and dismissed any claims to independence as attempts by Taiwan’s government to create conflict. Furthermore, state-run media outlets such as the Global Times framed Lai’s comments as provocative, suggesting that China would take a resolute stand against any perceived threats to its territorial integrity. This cyclical pattern of Taiwanese assertion and Chinese aggression underscores a pivotal moment in cross-strait relations, as Taiwan navigates its desire for recognition and independence in the face of potent and unwavering hostility from its neighbor.