A recent survey conducted by the Wall Street Journal reveals that former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris by three percentage points in a two-way matchup. The poll, which was conducted from October 19 to October 22, 2024, sampled 1,500 registered voters, reporting that Trump garnered 49 percent of the support compared to Harris’s 46 percent. This shift in voter sentiment is noteworthy, as it contrasts with a previous August survey where Harris was leading Trump nationally. The survey is a part of the broader electoral context, with just weeks remaining until the deadline for early voting in several pivotal swing states.
When accounting for third-party and independent candidates, Trump’s support mildly dips to 47 percent while Harris’s increases slightly to 45 percent. Such figures indicate that while Trump retains a lead, the margins remain competitive, especially as third-party candidates could draw voters away from both major party candidates. Analysts suggest that the presence of these candidates might play a significant role in influencing the overall election outcome, a factor that both campaigns must take into consideration as they finalize their strategies leading to Election Day.
The survey suggests a significant change in the public perception of both candidates since August. The results indicate a decline in favorable views of Harris, whose approval rating is reported at 42-54 percent, reflecting an eight-point gap in favorability. In contrast, Trump has experienced a turnaround, with a slight approval of his past White House performance, standing at 52 percent approval against 48 percent disapproval. These shifts could signal a growing discontent with Harris’s performance as vice president, an issue that the Biden administration will likely seek to address as it aims to strengthen Harris’s position during the final weeks of the campaign.
Further reinforcing Trump’s lead, a national poll by AtlastIntel conducted between October 12 and October 17, 2024, revealed that Trump accumulated 50.8 percent support from likely voters compared to Harris’s 48.1 percent. This alignment across several polling sources suggests that Trump’s message and campaign tactics may be resonating more effectively with the electorate as the election approaches, contrasting with the more negative perceptions of Harris.
In another national poll conducted by Fox News from October 11 to October 14, 2024, results similarly showed Trump ahead of Harris by two points, with Trump at 50 percent and Harris at 48 percent. The consistency across various polling efforts highlights a potential national trend favoring Trump, pointing to concerns around Harris’s appeal and the effectiveness of the Biden administration’s messaging in mobilizing support ahead of an election poised to be highly contentious.
As the election nears, the dynamics illustrated by these polls underscore the critical importance of public perception, voter sentiment, and candidate favorability. Campaigns are likely to ramp up efforts to address the issues surfaced in these surveys, particularly for Harris, who faces the challenge of reversing her declining numbers while navigating the political landscape shaped by Trump’s resurgence. With the election drawing closer, every polling data point will be scrutinized, and each candidate’s response will play a significant role in shaping the ultimate electoral outcome.
