This year’s elections revealed a notable shift among Arab and Muslim voters away from the Democratic Party, prompting concerns from community leaders about a potentially enduring change in a voting bloc that has historically favored Democrats for two decades. Despite the fact that no single group played a pivotal role in the election won by President-elect Donald Trump, the results indicate a trend among voters of color gravitating toward Trump, despite his controversial rhetoric. Layla Elabed, co-chair of the national Uncommitted movement, expressed fears that if the Democratic Party fails to align its policies with the sentiments and needs of these voters, the exodus could result in long-term political consequences.
Historically, Muslim Americans had initially supported Republican George W. Bush in the 2000 elections, but sentiments shifted in response to the post-9/11 military actions and domestic policies perceived as targeting Muslims. Following this, Muslim voters demonstrated a strong allegiance to the Democratic Party, largely in opposition to Trump’s earlier Muslim travel bans and Islamophobic remarks. However, the recent election saw a significant turnout for Trump in traditionally Democratic strongholds such as Dearborn, Michigan, which has a large Arab American population. In this city, Trump garnered 42% of the vote—a striking increase from his previous election figures—while Democratic candidate Kamala Harris barely maintained half of Joe Biden’s 2020 support.
Data from the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) underscored the declining support for Harris among Muslim voters, with only 20% supporting her compared to 69% for Biden in the 2020 elections. The survey highlighted that vocal opposition to the Biden administration’s foreign policy, particularly regarding the war in Gaza, significantly impacted Harris’s appeal. Community leaders indicated a growing frustration with the Democratic Party, suggesting that the party has not adequately acknowledged the anger within the Arab and Muslim communities over perceived dismissals of their concerns. The expectation that these voters would return to the Democratic column simply due to fears of a Trump presidency proved misguided.
The strategic oversight by the Democratic Party was apparent in their campaign tactics, as the Harris team failed to engage with the community adequately. This lack of outreach fostered feelings of neglect among Arab and Muslim leaders, who noted that essential constituency management practices—such as personal meetings and open dialogues—were glaringly absent. Rania Batrice, a Palestinian American strategist, emphasized that warnings about the party’s approach went unheeded, leading to disappointment from voters who felt marginalized. Despite the Party’s assumption that community concerns would be addressed out of fear of Trump, many community members opted for alternative voting paths.
In sharp contrast, Trump actively engaged with Arab and Muslim communities during his campaign, hosting events and consulting with local leaders. His outreach efforts included meeting with religious figures and promoting policies that resonated with some constituents. Rabiul Chowdhury from Muslims for Trump expressed optimism about their community’s newfound political engagement and suggested that Trump’s acknowledgment of Muslim American roles was a compelling shift. The Uncommitted movement, which sought representation and acknowledgment of Palestinian issues at the Democratic National Convention, felt rejected by the Harris campaign, further complicating community relations.
While the Democratic Party is understandably concerned about the election outcomes, many activists believe that this is a pivotal moment that could lead to sustained political disengagement from Arab and Muslim voters if their needs continue to be overlooked. Abdullah Hammoud, the Democratic mayor of Dearborn, summarized the situation by stressing that neither party should take voter loyalty for granted. Political analysis may provide insights into electoral dynamics, but ultimately, as Hammoud stated on social media, “Votes are never promised to any party or candidate.” This reflects a broader discontent within the voter base, needing decisive action from parties looking to reclaim the trust and support of a pivotal demographic.
