On a recent episode of Fox News Channel’s “Special Report,” Israeli Ambassador to the United States Michael Herzog articulated his perspective regarding the potential for a diplomatic breakthrough involving Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. Ambassador Herzog expressed optimism about the possibility of securing a comprehensive normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia along with a defense treaty between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia during the current transition period in U.S. leadership. He emphasized that this is largely due to the existing political climate, which he believes favors such agreements under President Joe Biden’s administration. Herzog remarked that this “window” for negotiation remains open, contingent on addressing certain political needs and requirements from the Saudi leadership.
When prompted by host Bret Baier, Herzog clarified the implications of achieving a deal during the Biden administration versus a potential transition to a Trump presidency. He indicated that Democratic senators are more likely to endorse and support a Biden-negotiated agreement, which would facilitate the passage of legislation that requires a supermajority—specifically, 67 votes in the Senate. This detail underlines the strategic timing of negotiations, as Herzog suggests that the likelihood of garnering bipartisan support diminishes under a potentially different political administration, such as that of Trump, who may not hold the same appeal among Democratic lawmakers.
Herzog emphasized the comprehensive nature of the proposed agreement, which he termed a “package deal.” This package would not only aim to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia but also establish a formal defense treaty between the United States and Saudi Arabia. He reiterated the necessity of achieving broad political support within the Senate to reach the required majority, which raises the stakes for negotiations in the current political environment. The framework of the deal could set a significant precedent for Middle Eastern diplomatic relations, in turn impacting broader geopolitical dynamics.
As for quantifying the chances of success in these negotiations, Herzog adopted a pragmatic approach, estimating the probabilities to be around 50/50. This cautious optimism reflects both the complex realities of international diplomacy and the specific challenges inherent in securing a legislative agreement. His stance highlights the unpredictable nature of political negotiations, especially given the myriad factors that can influence Senate voting behavior, including party alignment, regional stakeholders, and evolving international circumstances.
In summary, Ambassador Herzog’s comments project a hopeful yet cautious outlook for future U.S.-Saudi-Israeli relations, contingent on the successful navigation of the political landscape. His remarks underscore the importance of timing and leadership in achieving significant diplomatic milestones. The potential normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, coupled with a defense agreement with the U.S., represents a multifaceted diplomatic effort that could have wide-reaching implications for security and cooperation in the region.
Ultimately, the success of such initiatives will depend not just on the political will of current leaders, but also on how effectively all parties can negotiate terms that satisfy their national interests and address the underlying complexities that characterize Middle Eastern geopolitics.
