In recent developments surrounding the Syrian Civil War, an Iranian military plane was reportedly forced to turn back over Syrian airspace to avoid potential Israeli airstrikes, highlighting the precarious state of Tehran’s military support for the Assad regime. As Iranian officials grapple with the mounting threats posed by Israeli and other regional forces, they have conveyed to former President Bashar Assad that any military assistance from Iran would be severely limited. The Wall Street Journal’s reports suggest that Tehran holds Assad partially responsible for failing to prepare adequately for an offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other armed opposition groups, which culminated in a significant power shift in Damascus.
This shift occurred within a mere two weeks after the opposition factions launched a surprise offensive from the northern provinces of Idlib and Aleppo. Initially, Russian forces intervened with airstrikes against the advancing militants, but the Syrian Army opted to disengage as they approached the capital. Furthermore, the Russian foreign ministry announced that Assad had already consented to relinquish power peacefully, indicating a drastic transformation within the country’s political landscape. This series of events underscores the diminishing effectiveness of Assad’s military backing amidst intense opposition advances.
Iran’s challenge in supplying military aid to the Assad regime is now compounded by the threat posed by Israeli air forces, further complicating the already strained relations among the involved parties in the Syrian conflict. With Assad’s regime on the brink of collapse and his family reportedly seeking asylum in Moscow, the geopolitical struggle for influence in Syria has intensified. Both Israel and the United States have subsequently positioned themselves to claim responsibility for influencing Assad’s precarious situation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explicitly stated that Iran’s operations in Syria and the war against Hezbollah have played a crucial role in contributing to Assad’s downfall.
Simultaneously, President Joe Biden reinforced the narrative of American involvement in influencing the balance of power in the Middle East by highlighting the interplay of military aid to Israel and sanctions against Iran and Syria. Biden remarked that U.S. support had opened “new opportunities” for the Syrian opposition, suggesting a concerted effort to shift the existing power dynamics. This context provides insight into how various international players are maneuvering their strategies in the face of ongoing turmoil in Syria, with each country vying for an upper hand amid a rapidly changing battleground.
Amidst these geopolitical shifts, both Russia and Iran have continued to advocate for a unified Syrian opposition government that represents all facets of Syrian society. They have called for adherence to UN Security Council Resolution 2254, which seeks to establish a peaceful resolution to the civil war, promote free elections, and foster the creation of a new constitution. This joint stance between Iran and Russia emphasizes a desire for stability in Syria, albeit under less favorable terms for Assad, as they maintain diplomatic relations despite the regime’s waning influence.
As the dust settles from this recent wave of upheaval, the convergence of numerous external and internal factors raises questions about the future of Assad’s regime and the broader implications for Iran’s military involvement. Tehran’s decision to limit support appears to stem not just from strategic calculations but a recognition of the realities on the ground. With the Syrian conflict evolving, the outcomes of these power struggles will undoubtedly shape the region’s geopolitical landscape for years to come, posing challenges for both the new authorities in Damascus and those who seek to influence the direction of Syria’s ever-changing political landscape.