The recently established government of Prime Minister Michel Barnier in France appears to be struggling to gain public trust. Just three months into his tenure, a survey indicates a significant lack of confidence among the populace, with over half of respondents supporting a motion of no confidence that could lead to fresh elections. This situation follows President Emmanuel Macron’s controversial decision to call for snap legislative elections earlier, which left Barnier in a precarious position as a compromise candidate. As political tensions mount, the sustainability of Barnier’s government is increasingly in jeopardy.
Public approval of Prime Minister Barnier has taken a hit since his assumption of office in September, plunging from 45 percent to a mere 36 percent. Moreover, President Macron’s personal approval rating has dropped to a troubling 22 percent, marking the lowest level since he began his time in office in 2017. This decline in public sentiment underscores the growing discontent with the current administration. As dissatisfaction escalates, Barnier’s ability to maintain the governance of his establishment cabinet faces significant challenges.
Barnier, a seasoned politician and former EU Brexit negotiator, was selected to guide France through a turbulent financial period, facing a fractured National Assembly. However, his proposed austerity budget, which entails 60 billion euros in tax increases and spending cuts, has been met with backlash from both leftist and populist factions. The left-wing New Popular Front and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally are particularly resistant to Barnier’s austerity measures, putting him in a difficult negotiating position. As the Prime Minister prepares to engage with opposition leaders, including Le Pen, he faces a critical moment in his efforts to secure support for his budget.
Marine Le Pen has signaled openness to collaborating with the New Popular Front on the censure motion of no confidence if her demands regarding budgetary adjustments are ignored by Barnier. Her party’s grievances include calls to eliminate planned tax hikes that they claim disproportionately affect the working class—a point of contention that could prove pivotal for Barnier’s government. Should the National Rally align with the leftist bloc in their motion, the likelihood of the Barnier administration’s collapse would increase significantly, plunging the country into further political instability.
President Macron, meanwhile, finds himself with limited constitutional options should Barnier’s government fall before fresh elections are permitted in June of the following year. One potential avenue is the reinstatement of Barnier’s cabinet, but he could also consider the establishment of a technocratic government akin to models used in Italy. Such a government would consist of non-partisan experts capable of enforcing unpopular policies without the political pressures often faced by elected officials. Although this approach has never been tried in the context of France’s Fifth Republic, it could offer a way to navigate the current crisis.
In summary, Prime Minister Barnier’s government is teetering on the brink of collapse due to dwindling public support, fierce opposition to austerity measures, and potential collaboration among discontented factions. The path forward remains uncertain, with President Macron constrained by constitutional limitations in his response to a potential crisis. As the political landscape evolves, the implications of these developments could significantly shape France’s governance and public policy in the near future.