Andrew Korybko’s analysis highlights the rising influence of India in the Arctic, presenting it as a strategic counterbalance to China’s ambitions in the region and aligning with both Russian and Western interests. The collaboration between India and Russia is notably epitomized by the formation of a joint working group focused on the Northern Sea Route (NSR), a burgeoning trade avenue expected to become vital for international commerce. This initiative was catalyzed during Indian Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Moscow, which resulted in several agreements aimed at enhancing cooperation across various fields, particularly concerning Arctic navigation and resource management.
One of the underlying factors driving India’s Arctic strategy is the anticipated utilization of the NSR for trade with Europe. Geopolitical tensions, exemplified by the Israeli-Resistance War, have disrupted traditional trade routes, particularly the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). With the Red Sea route currently compromised, the NSR presents a more secure alternative for Indo-European trade. This strategic shift underscores the importance of the NSR in ensuring the fluidity and security of trade between India and Europe, especially as tensions in other critical areas present new challenges.
Moreover, India possesses significant shipbuilding capabilities that can cater to Russia’s need for specialized vessels, such as non-nuclear icebreakers required for Arctic operations. With sanctions hindering European shipyards and other competitors from fulfilling these needs for the foreseeable future, India is well-positioned to enter into this lucrative sector. The plan to construct over 1,000 ships in the coming decade highlights the mutual benefits of Russia investing in India’s shipbuilding capacity, especially as it looks to expand operations along the NSR.
A further component of cooperation involves the training of Indian sailors who can navigate the NSR. Given Russia’s restrictive regulations and demographic challenges, experienced Indian sailors provide a viable solution to Russia’s crew shortages. This cooperation is integral to ensuring operational readiness and compliance with Russian maritime regulations, further solidifying the partnership between the two nations in Arctic endeavors.
The discussion around India investing in Russian energy projects, like the Arctic LNG 2, underlines the complex geopolitical landscape. While current sanctions inhibit Indian engagement in such ventures, there is potential for future investments if conditions align favorably, especially in light of India’s role in easing tensions in the Ukraine conflict. The Western interest in facilitating India’s involvement, rather than ceding dominance to China, illustrates the shifting dynamics as all parties recognize India’s critical role in the broader geopolitical balance.
Ultimately, these emerging partnerships reflect India’s increasing significance in the Arctic, serving as a counterweight to China’s influence while satisfying Russian and Western objectives. However, the full realization of this potential hinges on India’s ability to navigate Western sanctions regarding Arctic energy projects. Discreet negotiations might help pave the way for exemptions that would enhance India’s competitive stance in the Arctic and solidify its position as a pivotal player in global geopolitics.