The Tren de Aragua, a transnational criminal organization originating from Venezuela, has garnered attention for its rapid expansion throughout Latin America and into the United States, according to a recent report by BBC Mundo. This gang has learned from the experiences and mistakes of other gangs, particularly the Salvadoran MS-13 and 18th Street, allowing it to accelerate its growth and adapt its operations for maximum profitability. Experts interviewed in the report highlight how Tren de Aragua has effectively capitalized on the Venezuelan migrant crisis to spread its influence and illicit activities, showcasing a level of adaptability that sets it apart from more traditional organized crime groups.
FBI retired agent Daniel Brunner noted that Tren de Aragua now boasts a presence in at least 20 states across the U.S., although he expressed skepticism regarding the organization’s structure, suggesting it does not have a grand expansion plan. Instead, it has opportunistically spread alongside the Venezuelan migration patterns, exploiting Venezuelan populations in areas where they have settled similarly to MS-13’s operations with Salvadoran communities. Brunner emphasized that the group has demonstrated a quick learning curve from the practices of other gangs, adjusting its strategies in light of previous criminal organizations’ failures.
Further elaborating on Tren de Aragua’s evolution, Pablo Zeballos, a former member of the Chilean Carabineros, pointed out that despite being relatively new compared to other gangs like Brazil’s PCC, the group has rapidly amassed diverse criminal capabilities. It is involved in various criminal enterprises, including drug trafficking, extortion related to migration, and even petty theft. Zeballos illustrated the group’s flexibility in securing revenue streams by engaging in different forms of crime, jumping from drug trafficking to more mundane crimes like street thefts, which sets a new precedent in criminal diversification.
Luis Izquiel, a criminology professor in Venezuela, traced the origins of Tren de Aragua to a union that began extorting contractors on a railroad project in Aragua. As the organization’s influence grew, many of its members ended up in Tocorón prison, where Hector “the Child” Guerrero, the gang’s leader, was incarcerated. The group’s power was solidified from within the prison system, creating a stronghold that aided their criminal activities. The report mentions that Guerrero has been missing since a government raid in September 2023, leading to speculation that he may have received assistance from government officials, highlighting the potential complicity of the Venezuelan state in the organization’s operations.
Investigators suggest that Tren de Aragua’s rapid expansion is indicative of a more complex relationship with state actors, postulating that the gang may receive explicit or tacit support from officials within the Venezuelan regime. Initial evidence of their outreach was seen as early as 2018 in Peru, where the group began to realize the profitability of controlling migration flows. Journalist Ronna Rísquez points out that the gang has utilized its knowledge of varying criminal landscapes in every country it infiltrates, indicating a savvy approach to criminal enterprise and highlighting the systemic issues tied to migration in the region.
As Tren de Aragua’s operatives establish footholds across the U.S., experts believe their presence is an inevitable consequence of their success elsewhere. Joseph Humire from the Center for a Secure Free Society tracked the group’s proliferation from 2021 onwards, noting a sharp increase in reports of their activities in 2024. However, there remains uncertainty about the ultimate goals of Tren de Aragua in the U.S. market. Rísquez concluded by suggesting that understanding their motivations and plans is essential for gauging the potential risks posed by this gang, indicating that while their presence is discernible, the full extent of their operations and ambitions is still emerging.
