Former President Donald Trump’s election campaign appears to be in a strong position according to James Blair, who oversees the political operations for Trump’s campaign. In a recent interview, Blair highlighted that Trump’s polling numbers are notably higher than in previous elections, solidifying his lead in almost all battleground states. This favorable trend suggests that the campaign is performing significantly better than in the past four or eight years, with Trump maintaining an advantageous position in public polling across critical states. Overall, the optimism surrounding Trump’s campaign comes from both national and state-level trends that appear to favor his candidacy, suggesting a solid chance for success in the upcoming election.
Blair’s analysis of specific battleground states begins with North Carolina, where Trump is reportedly outperforming previous polling data by about three points. He emphasized a shift in the state’s electorate, which has leaned more Republican since the 2020 election, narrowing the gap with Democrats. Blair noted that while the state still technically has more registered Democrats, there has been a significant increase in Republican voter registrations, amounting to a net gain of around 270,000 voters. He expressed confidence that these changes will favor Trump, though he acknowledged possible challenges like voter displacement from recent storms.
In Georgia, Blair asserts that Trump is maintaining a slight lead over prior averages by about half to one point. Significant shifts have occurred, with 62% of new voter registrations coming from counties that Trump previously won. There has also been a dramatic decrease in absentee mail-in ballot requests, suggesting a more favorable turnout scenario for Trump’s campaign. The internal tracking data indicates a reduced gap for early voter returns, further bolstering confidence in Georgia’s potential to swing in Trump’s favor as the election approaches.
Blair shared an optimistic view of the situation in Arizona, where he reports “structural gains” and a movement of the electorate to more Republican positions. He cited an increase of approximately 270,000 in Republican voter registration since 2020, giving Trump a more robust advantage entering the election. Analysts working with the Trump campaign have noted that Republicans now dominate mail-in voting, positioning Trump favorably with respect to voter turnout dynamics in the state.
In Pennsylvania, Blair suggested that the Democrats are growing increasingly uneasy about their standing, as Vice President Kamala Harris has reportedly brought in a senior adviser to bolster their efforts. Trump is polling significantly better than in previous years, with a crucial shift in voter registration that has seen the gap between registered Democrats and Republicans shrink dramatically. Mail-in ballot requests have also dropped by about 30 percent, a trend that is further reinforcing the campaign’s optimistic outlook for Trump’s chances in this key state.
Discussions about Wisconsin and Michigan reflect a similar sentiment of growing momentum for Trump. In Wisconsin, the campaign has observed a significant drop in mail ballots while tracking encouraging statistics regarding voter enthusiasm for Trump. Meanwhile, in Michigan, Blair mentioned that polling now suggests Trump may have overtaken Harris, as the gap has notably closed, with volunteer registrations favoring Trump counties. Across all these battlegrounds, Blair emphasized Trump’s recognizable shift in voter dynamics, backed by substantial data that suggests a promising election outcome for Trump in the upcoming campaign.