As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches its conclusion, anticipation builds around the results, though uncertainty remains about when final tallies will be announced. After nearly two years of campaigning, marked by significant incidents including two assassination attempts and President Biden’s unexpected exit from the race, the contest has finally reached the polling stage. With Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump as the prominent candidates, their last week of campaigning was characterized by intense outrage, each attempting to capitalize on their opponent’s controversial statements to shift voter sentiment in an incredibly tight race. Ultimately, the outcome will hinge on seven key battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, each with its own distinct election laws that will influence the speed of vote counting. As a result, even as polls close in several jurisdictions, voters may not gain a clear understanding of the election winner until well after Election Day.
Early exit polls have disclosed mixed sentiments among voters, reflecting both optimism and apprehension for both candidates. For Kamala Harris, a substantial 35% of voters expressed that democracy was the core issue guiding their vote, suggesting her focus on this theme resonated with key parts of the electorate. This runs counter to prior national polls that identified economic concerns as the leading issue. NBC’s exit poll also indicated a stark perception among voters regarding democracy, with 75% believing it is under threat. Conversely, Donald Trump’s campaign strategy involved linking Harris closely with President Biden, banking on the president’s unpopularity to diminish her support. CNN’s exit polling revealed a troubling outlook: only 7% of voters expressed enthusiasm for the nation’s direction, whereas a striking 29% reported feeling angry. The overwhelming majority of voters had decided whom they would support long before Election Day, with 80% making their choice prior to September, indicating that recent events may have had a limited impact on their final decisions.
As the election night progresses, the timeline for announcing results varies significantly by state. Polls close at different times, starting from 7:00 PM Eastern Time in Georgia, where a winner might be declared by late Tuesday night due to recent legislative changes allowing early ballot tabulation. North Carolina, known for swift counting, may also produce quick results. By 8:00 PM, polls will close in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Michigan’s votes are expected to be counted quickly, while Pennsylvania might take several days due to its reliance on mail-in ballots that can’t be counted until the polls close. Historical precedents from prior elections hint that news outlets could delay projecting a winner until a comprehensive count is possible, especially in states like Pennsylvania that have proven difficult to call.
The complexity of the Electoral College system further complicates election night expectations. Each state’s number of electoral votes is determined by its congressional representation, and a total of 270 electoral votes is required to secure the presidency. The battleground states hold 93 electoral votes, which are essential for both Trump and Harris in reaching an overall majority. Should Harris succeed in winning Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan, she could accumulate a total of 273 electoral votes, putting her on course for victory. On the other hand, if Trump secures these states, he would reach 266 electoral votes but would still need additional wins to surpass the threshold.
The traditional “blue wall” states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—present a clear path for Harris to clinch victory. Polling data suggests she has an edge in these states, which would enable her to reach the necessary 270 electoral votes. For Trump, retaining dominance in the Sun Belt states while capturing one or more of these blue wall states presents a viable winning strategy. The stakes are high as both candidates prepare for hours of result gathering and analysis that will determine the future trajectory of American leadership and policy.
With the situation evolving and states counting ballots at varying speeds, careful attention is warranted in interpreting the incoming election results. As the nation awaits clarity on the winner of this highly contested election, it is crucial to consider the implications of voter sentiment revealed through exit polling and how it will impact the final electoral outcome. The 2024 election has proved to be a pivotal moment in U.S. politics, influenced by significant social issues and individual perspectives on democracy and governance. The final outcome will not only shape the political landscape but also reflect the collective priorities and concerns of the American electorate.