During a CNN panel discussion, guest Marc Lotter expressed significant concern about the Democrats’ early voting numbers, suggesting that they indicate a troubling outlook for Vice President Kamala Harris and the party in the upcoming election. Lotter pointed out that Democrats are currently down by 1.7 million early votes in key battleground states, particularly among urban voters, and highlighted a 1.4 million vote deficit among women voters in those states. He also noted an increase of 300,000 early votes from rural voters for Republicans, emphasizing the importance of early voting for Democrats, who traditionally rely on this to secure wins before Election Day when Republicans tend to perform better.
Lotter’s analysis came in the context of a broader narrative being shared by the Trump campaign, which is framing the early voting data as favorable to Republicans compared to the 2020 election cycle. Data reported suggested that new and infrequent voters appear to be shifting toward the Republican side in critical swing states such as Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. The Trump campaign pointed out that over 1.4 million Democratic voters from the past two election cycles had not yet cast their ballots, raising questions about the strength of Democrat turnout this election season.
Analyzing the early voting landscape in Arizona, it was reported that Republicans have a notable advantage, showing an increase of 8 points in party registration for returned mail and early votes compared to 2020. Overall, Republicans returned 924,524 ballots against 736,569 for Democrats. In Georgia, early voting data indicated a 7% dip in African American early vote turnout compared to 2020, even as overall numbers soared. This suggests a complex shift where, although the total early voting figures are up, the key demographic shifts could undermine Democratic strategies that rely heavily on mobilizing Black voters.
In Michigan, while specific voter registration data for early votes was lacking, early trends indicated that 32% of early votes were in-person, a voting method favored by Trump supporters. Over 2.58 million out of 7 million registered voters had cast their ballots early, signaling a significant turnout. Meanwhile, North Carolina appeared to mark a historic moment for Republicans, who had never before led in early vote returns, as they reported an increase of 9 points relative to 2020.
Similarly, in Nevada, Republicans were leading early voting by 4 points. Approximately 42% of Democratic early votes were cast by men, while 52% of Republican votes came from the same demographic. The data showed Republicans securing 406,705 early votes against 363,595 for Democrats. In Pennsylvania, early voting figures suggested a slip in Democratic advantage, with early absentee ballots falling significantly, indicating a potential trouble spot for the party moving into Election Day.
Finally, overall trends in Wisconsin and across the country painted a picture of a challenging landscape for Democrats. Early votes in Wisconsin had decreased by 23% since 2020, with a notable drop in mail-in ballot requests. More broadly, around 76 million early votes had been cast across the U.S., a stark contrast to the 252 million total votes in the 2020 election that had favored Democrats. This shift in early voting dynamics suggests a pivotal moment for both parties as they prepare for the election, particularly with Republicans appearing to harness significant gains in demographics that previously leaned Democratic.
