In a recent NBC News poll, political correspondent Steve Kornacki reported that President Donald Trump has effectively erased his previous 5-point deficit against Vice President Kamala Harris, with both candidates now tied ahead of the upcoming election. This shift marks a significant change from earlier polling conducted after a debate in September, where Harris had gained a more substantial lead over Trump. Kornacki emphasized that the current electoral landscape is highly competitive, and this near tie underscores the fluidity of voter sentiments as Election Day approaches.
Delving into the factors contributing to this shift, Kornacki noted that both candidates are viewed negatively by voters, with Trump and Harris each possessing a positive rating of 43% while being 51% viewed negatively. This correlates to their overall favorability, which has remained stagnant, with neither candidate managing to improve their standing significantly during this critical period. Harris had shown signs of momentum post-debate, boasting a 48% positive rating compared to Trump’s 45%. However, in subsequent weeks, this advantage has evaporated due to changing perceptions among voters.
The issues of immigration, inflation, and the various characteristics associated with Trump and Harris also play key roles in voters’ decision-making. Notably, Trump has widened his advantage on immigration, showing a significant increase in approval from voters regarding his handling of border issues. The gap has also expanded concerning inflation, where Trump now leads Harris by double digits. Furthermore, a slight shift has occurred in voters’ perception of who represents “change,” with Harris still holding an advantage but experiencing a decrease in support.
Kornacki pointed out that Harris’s challenges are compounded by her association with President Joe Biden, whose administration is currently viewed unfavorably by many voters. Approximately two-thirds of respondents believe Biden’s policies are hurting their families rather than helping them, indicating widespread discontent with the current administration. Biden’s job approval rating hovers in the low 40s, impacting Harris’s candidacy as she struggles to distance herself from the incumbent president’s unpopular policies.
In contrast, Trump is benefiting from a retrospective evaluation of his own presidency, where 44% of respondents now believe his policies were more helpful than harmful, a stark reversal from his actual term in office. This shift in public perception suggests that voters might be reassessing their views on Trump as they consider their options for the upcoming election. Kornacki analyzed the historical context of vice presidents running for office while their presidents are still in office, noting that previous vice presidents like Al Gore and George H.W. Bush had a significant advantage due to their predecessors’ high approval ratings. Harris, however, finds herself in a notably different political environment, with Biden’s approval significantly lower than that of his predecessors.
As the election approaches, the implications of this poll are substantial for both candidates. If Trump has managed to regain ground in what was once viewed as a tenuous election landscape for him, the dynamics could shift further as voters continue to navigate their feelings about the current state of government and leadership. With significant issues like inflation and immigration shaping public discourse, how both candidates address these matters will be crucial in determining their respective fates in the election arena. The evolving perceptions will undoubtedly play a critical role in how voters engage with the candidates in the days leading up to the election.
