As the general election approaches in Texas, Rep. Colin Allred, the Democratic U.S. Senate candidate, finds himself in an intense and competitive race against incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. With less than three weeks until Election Day on November 5, Cruz holds a slim 4-point lead according to the latest polls. The stakes are high for Democrats, who view Allred as a key contender in their efforts to maintain control of the Senate, particularly in a state that hasn’t favored Democrats in Senate races for nearly three decades. To galvanize support, Allred is ramping up his campaign activities, including a significant rally in Houston featuring Vice President Kamala Harris and pop icon Beyoncé. This event aims to highlight Texas’s stringent anti-abortion laws, a topic that has gained traction since the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, triggering bans in states like Texas.
In response to the tightening race, the Senate Majority PAC has stepped in with a substantial $5 million advertising investment to support Allred’s campaign. This marks the first significant ad spending in a race where Cruz’s unpopularity has become increasingly evident, particularly following his controversial trip to Cancun during a severe winter storm in Texas in 2021 and his support for restrictive abortion legislation. Polling suggests a mixed landscape for Allred; while internal Democratic polls show him with a slight lead, forecast models from organizations like 538 indicate he faces severe uphill odds, with just an 18% chance of winning. The party’s hopes lean on Allred, alongside other Democratic incumbents facing competitive races nationwide, as they aim to secure necessary victories in swing states to maintain a Senate majority.
Cruz’s campaign has attempted to dismiss Allred as a serious threat, yet acknowledges the closeness of the race is not ideal for them. Their strategy seems predicated on distinguishing Allred from previous strong Democratic challengers like Beto O’Rourke, who came within 3 points of defeating Cruz in 2018, primarily due to a significant fundraising advantage that Allred has yet to achieve. The current political dynamics and financial landscapes are different, with super PACs supporting Cruz actively working against Allred’s campaign. Meanwhile, Allred reports raising an impressive $11 million within a mere two weeks, showcasing his viability as a competitor despite structural advantages present in previous cycles for Democratic candidates.
While Democrats remain hopeful for Allred’s campaign, some party members express concerns regarding his energy and direct outreach compared to O’Rourke’s. During a recent event at the Backyard on Broadway, a local venue, supporters expressed the need for more visibility and enthusiasm around Allred’s candidacy, highlighting that past engagements were more impactful. Nevertheless, Allred has crafted his campaign messaging around being a centrist willing to work across party lines, particularly emphasizing a woman’s right to choose as a central issue. Allred argues that the loss of reproductive freedoms is incompatible with personal liberty, framing the struggle for reproductive rights as a critical battleground for the upcoming election.
Abortion has emerged as a galvanizing issue for Texas Democrats since the reversal of Roe v. Wade, impacting voter sentiment and spurring increased participation in both statewide and national elections. Allred has drawn attention to personal anecdotes regarding women’s experiences affected by Texas’s abortion restrictions. This message will be prominent at the upcoming rally where individuals directly impacted by these laws will share their stories, aiming to mobilize voters disillusioned with current conservative policies. Allred’s commitment to protecting reproductive rights underscores a broader Democratic strategy to leverage social issues in order to engage voters dissatisfied with the Republican agenda.
Integral to Allred’s campaign is the ongoing organizational groundwork laid by groups like the Texas Majority PAC, which aims to bolster Democratic turnout ahead of elections. With ambitions to significantly increase participation among Democratic voters by 2032, the organization reports extensive grassroots efforts, including door-to-door outreach and community conversations with registered Democrats. Despite the inherent challenges in converting Texas into a Democratic stronghold, these mobilization efforts, coupled with the emerging public scrutiny surrounding issues such as abortion, provide a more favorable environment for Allred to expand his support base. As the election draws near, both candidates are focused on defining their narratives in a crucial battle that could impact the Senate’s political balance and the larger 2024 presidential landscape.
