Recent polling indicates that former President Donald Trump has gained significant traction in Michigan, now leading Vice President Kamala Harris by three percentage points, according to a Quinnipiac University poll. The polling, conducted among 1,007 likely voters, shows Trump garnering 50% support compared to Harris’s 47%. This shift poses considerable challenges for the Harris campaign and the Democratic Party, particularly given that just a month prior, Harris held a five-point advantage over Trump. The recent trends suggest a notable eight-point swing in favor of Trump.
Central to Trump’s rise is a marked increase in support among women voters in Michigan. Previously, Harris maintained a commanding 19-point lead with this demographic, with 58% backing her. However, that dominance has narrowed sharply, now showing Harris with a slim 53% to 45% lead among likely female voters. Additionally, Trump’s support among men in Michigan has increased from a 10-point lead to a 14-point advantage. The polling results indicate that independent voters are also shifting towards Trump; he now leads with this group at 48% compared to Harris’s 46%, reversing the previous month’s standings.
A particularly dramatic transformation is noted among younger voters aged 18-34. In the previous September poll, Harris enjoyed a substantial lead with 56% of this group, while Trump trailed at 38%. However, the latest data reveals a complete turnaround, with Trump now leading by eight points at 51% to Harris’s 43%. This shift marks a striking 26-point swing toward Trump within just a month, highlighting a vulnerability for Harris in demographics that are historically critical in elections.
In addition to the Michigan results, the Quinnipiac poll also indicates that Harris is trailing Trump by two percentage points in Wisconsin and maintains only a slight lead in Pennsylvania. Political analyst Mark Halperin emphasizes that losing any of the Rust Belt states would significantly hamper Harris’s chances of winning the election. He warns that the mathematics of the electoral college make it extremely difficult for her to secure victory if she cannot hold these critical battleground states.
Moreover, Halperin points out that internal polling shows Harris struggling, reflecting an alarming trend for her campaign. Evidence of this can be seen in a recent internal poll for Senator Tammy Baldwin’s campaign, which found Harris three points behind Trump. This alarming news aligns with the findings of the Quinnipiac poll, which has begun to echo concerns revealed in private surveys. Conducted shortly after Harris’s vice presidential debate, the timing of the poll could further influence public sentiment ahead of the upcoming debates.
In the race for Michigan’s U.S. Senate seat, the poll signals additional trouble for Democrats, with former Rep. Mike Rogers tied with Rep. Elissa Slotkin at 48% each. This marks a noteworthy decline for Slotkin, who previously held a five-point lead over Rogers. The margin of error for both the presidential and Senate races is ±3.1 percentage points, underscoring the tight contests as candidates prepare for the upcoming debates, which could further impact voter perceptions in this critical election cycle.