President Joe Biden assumed office in 2021 amidst a relatively strong economy; however, inflation soon began to diminish Americans’ purchasing power, leading to an economic downturn. As inflation has subsided, the economy appears to be regaining its former strength, with recent assessments showing improvements in economic indicators. The Yahoo Finance Bidenomics Report Card, which evaluates economic performance through metrics such as total employment, manufacturing jobs, real earnings adjusted for inflation, exports, stock market performance, and GDP growth per capita, has noted a significant upgrade from a B+ to an A grade since July. This current assessment mirrors the initial A grade assigned to the economy during Biden’s first month in office, reflecting a recovery trajectory that is characteristic of the early stages of his presidency.
When evaluating economic performance in comparison to previous administrations, Biden’s record shines in three key categories: total employment, manufacturing employment, and GDP growth. In contrast, he ranks third out of eight presidencies for stock performance and second out of five for exports, albeit the latter data is only available from 1993. While Biden has faced challenges regarding average hourly earnings—largely due to high inflation rates in 2022 and 2023—this situation has begun to improve as inflation levels have dropped significantly. Notably, real earnings growth has recently turned positive, with Biden now positioned third among the previous eight presidents on this metric. This turnaround plays a crucial role in enhancing Biden’s economic grade and underscores the ongoing recovery.
Despite earning an A on the report card, it is essential to recognize that this grade does not equate to an unequivocally excellent economy, as it merely reflects performance in relation to past presidents. Significant challenges persist, particularly regarding housing and food costs, which remain unmanageable for many American families. Nevertheless, other analyses corroborate the findings of economic improvement—Biden’s administration has witnessed the creation of over 16 million jobs, the highest total in any presidential term. Manufacturing employment has also reached a 16-year high, with no recession occurring for over four years. Positive sentiment surrounding the economy has led to a decrease in the likelihood of an impending recession, further bolstered by statistical reductions in projected recession odds from major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs.
Interestingly, recent data reveals an uptick in voter trust towards Democrats concerning economic performance, notably since Vice President Kamala Harris emerged as the potential presidential candidate. Polls indicate that her approval ratings on economic issues surpass those of Biden, reflecting either a change in perception among voters or a genuine recognition of improvements in the economy. This shift could prove crucial as Election Day approaches, drawing contrasts between the Biden-Harris administration and the potential candidacy of Donald Trump. The comparative economic performances of the Biden-Harris team and Trump become critically relevant as voters assess who might better navigate future economic challenges.
Analyzing the economic records of Biden and Trump reveals that Biden outperforms Trump in total employment, manufacturing employment, and GDP growth, particularly when excluding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic statistics. However, Trump has shown stronger metrics in inflation management and real income growth, which may influence voter perceptions of economic well-being during his presidency. Both candidates’ economic records, charted against key metrics, provide voters with a retrospective framework to measure which administration might better serve the economic aspirations of Americans moving forward.
While partisanship often colors opinions on who is better for the economy, it is crucial to acknowledge that the U.S. economy is influenced by a myriad of factors beyond the control of the president. Historical responses to economic crises, especially the substantial fiscal and monetary stimulus initiated during Trump’s final year and continued into Biden’s term, have undoubtedly shaped the economic landscape both leaders have contended with. Although Biden enacted additional stimulus to bolster the economy, this approach also contributed to inflation, which the electorate seemed to predominantly associate with his administration’s shortcomings rather than the job growth achieved. Moving forward, it is important to recognize that the economic conditions influencing future presidencies may diverge significantly from the unprecedented stimulus-driven recovery experienced during Biden’s and Trump’s terms, as the economy shifts into a new phase governed by both external and internal forces rather than purely political decisions.