Andrew Latham’s analysis of Russia’s military intervention in Syria highlights the challenges currently facing Moscow as its influence in the region appears to wane. The 2015 intervention was a key element in asserting Russia’s ambitions as a great power, aiding Bashar al-Assad’s regime while allowing Moscow to project its influence throughout the Middle East. However, recent advances by rebel forces and the potential downfall of Assad pose significant threats to Russian interests, particularly its strategic assets like the Khmeimim airbase and Tartus naval facility. These developments not only risk isolating these bases but also raise profound questions regarding Russia’s global standing and military efficacy amid ongoing commitments in Ukraine.
The strategic importance of the Khmeimim airbase and Tartus naval facility cannot be understated. They serve as crucial logistical hubs for Russian operations in Syria, as well as in North Africa and beyond, providing the Kremlin with a platform to counter U.S. influence. The recent fall of Homs to rebel forces has cut off critical supply routes to these bases, leaving Russia increasingly reliant on vulnerable air and sea transportation. This situation undermines operational readiness and reduces Moscow’s ability to respond effectively to changing conditions in the region, thereby compromising its influence over neighboring theaters, including in Africa, where Russian private military contractors (PMCs) operate extensively.
The implications of Khmeimim and Tartus becoming isolated are dire for Moscow’s military capabilities in Syria and beyond. It hampers Russia’s ability to conduct necessary airstrikes, reconnaissance, and rapid responses to emerging threats, allowing opposition forces to become more emboldened. At the same time, Russian PMCs, which depend on stable logistical support for their operations across Africa, face increased challenges in sustaining their presence and missions. This potential disruption threatens not only military effectiveness but also Moscow’s broader geopolitical goals on the continent, where it has sought to expand its influence through both security provisions and economic partnerships.
Beyond the practical implications, the symbolic fallout from a potential rebel victory in Syria could be even more damaging for Russia. Moscow has framed its intervention as a testament to its reliability as an ally, committed to defending the sovereignty of its client states. A major defeat would undermine this narrative, sending a clear message about the limitations of Russian power and credibility among regional players such as Iran, Turkey, and Gulf states. Such a development might prompt these countries, along with African partners, to seek alliances with alternative powers, further isolating Russia diplomatically and economically.
Domestically, Putin faces significant repercussions should Assad’s regime fall. The Kremlin has positioned the Syrian intervention as a hallmark of Russian resurgence and statecraft. However, the apparent failure to stabilize the Assad regime could highlight shortcomings in Russian foreign policy, intensifying public and political scrutiny over the costs of military interventions, particularly in the context of ongoing struggles in Ukraine. This shift in perception poses risks to the carefully curated image of strength propagated through state media, creating vulnerabilities that the Kremlin would have to manage as it confronts growing dissent regarding its foreign endeavors.
As Russia deals with the fallout from its intervention in Syria, it finds itself at a critical crossroads: to escalate military support in a bid to salvage its interests or to retreat, accepting a diminished role in the region. Increased military commitment could preserve the vital Khmeimim and Tartus facilities, but it carries the risk of engaging in further conflicts with regional powers—potentially straining resources already taxed by commitments in Ukraine and Africa. Conversely, a strategic retreat would signal a significant erosion of global trust in Russia’s ability to protect its allies, thereby undermining its broader foreign policy objectives and inviting challenges to its influence in other parts of the world. The ongoing situation in Syria will inevitably shape the contours of Russian power and influence in the international arena, rendering the outcome of the conflict a pivotal moment for Moscow’s strategic ambitions.
