In a significant development following the fall of Damascus, former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stated that he never intended to flee to Russia, marking his first communication since that pivotal moment eight days prior. His remarks were shared on a Telegram channel linked to the Syrian presidency, the authenticity and control of which remain uncertain. According to Assad, as the capital succumbed to rebels, he retreated to a Russian military base in Latakia province to oversee combat operations, only to discover that Syrian troops had vacated their positions. Faced with intensified drone attacks on the Hmeimim airbase, Assad claimed that the Russian authorities arranged for his evacuation to Moscow as conditions at the base deteriorated.
Assad recounted the events of December 8, detailing how he felt besieged at the Russian facility. He stated that after Damascus fell, and with the collapse of significant military positions, the operational capacities of remaining state institutions had been severely hampered. He emphasized, “At no point during these events did I consider stepping down or seeking refuge,” asserting that he was not approached with any such proposals by any party involved. Assad’s rhetoric aimed to portray a steadfast leadership stance amidst chaos, insisting that an authority loses its purpose when faced with terrorist advances, implying that he remained committed to his role despite the state of emergency.
In the days leading up to the fall of Damascus, speculation surged regarding Assad’s whereabouts, particularly given that he was notably absent as various Syrian cities and provinces fell to rebel control led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The confusion culminated when Russian media prematurely claimed that Assad had been granted asylum in Russia. The apparent disconnect between Assad and his administration raised questions about his leadership and the regime’s stability during a critical period of military disintegration. This lack of contact highlighted fears that a power vacuum could ensue, which the rebellion’s rapid success seemed to threaten.
As regional dynamics unfolded, rebel factions continued to solidify their governance structures in areas formerly controlled by Assad. The HTS, originally formed as Jabhat al-Nusra, has undergone transformations since its establishment in 2011, including a break from al-Qaeda and a rebranding in 2016. Despite these shifts, HTS continues to be labeled a terrorist organization by international bodies such as the UN and US. Ahmed al-Sharaa, their leader, has promoted a narrative of tolerance for diverse religious groups, yet concerns linger regarding whether these claims can be reconciled with the group’s previous militant identity.
International reaction to the upheaval in Syria reflects a growing interest in establishing a new order as Assad’s government faces mounting pressure. The UN envoy, Geir Pedersen, has called for a “credible and inclusive” transitional process in Syria, recognizing the need for legitimate governance that encompasses all community voices. In parallel, Qatar’s move to send a delegation back to Syria to reconnect with transitional government officials underscores a thaw in diplomatic relationships, signaling potential shifts in regional alliances that could accompany the evolving political landscape.
Western nations, while not revoking their prior positions on HTS, have entered mild diplomatic engagements with the group, marking a strategic nuance in foreign policy that reflects the complexities of the Syrian crisis. The UK, for instance, clarified its ongoing designation of HTS as a proscribed terrorist organization even as contact was established. Meanwhile, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has reiterated a stance against the roles of Moscow and Tehran in Syria’s future, suggesting that for any transitional government to gain credibility, it cannot align with these nations. These developments underscore the intricate balancing act of international powers amid a volatile situation, with implications for future governance in Syria.