The ongoing conflict in Syria, particularly the tensions between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian National Army (SNA), reflects the complex political landscape that has unfolded over more than a decade of civil war. The SDF, a Kurdish-led militia, has played a crucial role as an ally of the United States in combating the Islamic State (ISIS), especially in dismantling its self-proclaimed caliphate in Raqqa. However, the SDF’s operations have been persistently undermined by attacks from the SNA, an Islamist coalition closely aligned with Turkey. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan regards the SDF as a terrorist organization, mirroring his stance against the PKK, which is designated as such by the U.S. This backdrop of increasing hostilities comes after a brief ceasefire orchestrated by U.S. officials in December, which fell apart due to Turkey’s failure to engage constructively.
The larger backdrop to these hostilities is the recent shift in power dynamics in Syria, culminating in the swift takeover of Damascus by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist group that emerged from al-Qaeda. Following the unexpected and relatively bloodless collapse of the Assad regime, HTS has seized control of key cities, including Aleppo, leading to the scattering of the remaining opposition forces. Meanwhile, Turkey has escalated its campaign to displace Kurdish communities along its borders, with a particular focus on the SDF, which is primarily composed of the People’s Protection Units (YPG/YPJ). The U.S. finds itself in a precarious position as it has built essential alliances with the SDF to counter ISIS, yet must also navigate a relationship with NATO ally Turkey, who seeks to eliminate perceived Kurdish threats.
Recent diplomatic attempts to mediate a lasting ceasefire highlight the urgent need for peace, especially as the potential for ISIS cells to exploit the chaos looms large. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Ankara aimed to reinforce U.S.-Turkey cooperation in stabilizing Syria while attempting to shield the SDF from further assaults. The SDF was able to broker a temporary ceasefire with the SNA in early December, aiming to establish a political process and cease hostilities in the region. However, the truce has since broken down, with SDF leadership attributing the collapse to Turkey’s unwillingness to engage genuinely in the peace talks and accusations that Ankara was impeding civilian evacuations from contested areas.
Turkey’s strategy in the region remains aligned with its longstanding objective of countering any Kurdish autonomy or military strength along its borders. In official statements, Turkish leadership has voiced explicit intentions to curtail Kurdish forces while remaining vague about their plans concerning the SDF. Implicit threats against the Kurdish people underscore Turkey’s commitment to exerting control in northern Syria, often at the expense of broader stability or the U.S.’s strategic interests in combatting terrorism. Ankara’s simultaneous acknowledgment of the need to prevent the resurgence of ISIS demonstrates the complicated interplay of differing goals among various factions in Syria.
As the SDF braces itself for further confrontations, the risks to the several detention facilities housing ISIS fighters have grown considerably. SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi has openly stated that ongoing conflict diverts the SDF’s focus from anti-ISIS operations to defense against Turkish-backed attacks. Such a shift in priorities not only threatens the integrity of detention centers holding ISIS members but may also give the terrorist organization an opportunity to regroup and launch new offensives. The Pentagon has indicated awareness of the fragility of these installations, noting the security concerns that could arise from any significant breakout of detained terrorist operatives.
In light of the diminishing support from the U.S. under the Biden administration, the SDF appears to be exploring new alignments, even considering associations with unexpected partners such as HTS. The Kurdish faction has begun to fly the flags of anti-Assad groups, signaling a potential shift in overt alliances as it grapples with existential threats. Despite initial hesitance, Abdi reports that HTS has communicated that they do not view the Kurds as targets but rather potential allies against common adversaries. As the situation continues to evolve, the stakes for the SDF in balancing relationships with various factions, including hostile Turkish forces and former jihadist groups, remain extraordinarily high, with the stability of the region—and the prospects for peace—hanging in the balance.