As nations convene in Baku, Azerbaijan, for COP29, the focus of discussions is on climate finance and commitments to combat climate change. Since November 11, countries have been engaged in intense negotiations, but the recent election of Donald Trump in the U.S. is casting a shadow on these commitments. Trump’s anticipated impact raises concerns regarding the U.S.’s future involvement in global climate efforts, particularly in light of America’s potential withdrawal from the Paris Agreement—an event that would alter the dynamics of international climate negotiations significantly.
The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, includes provisions that restrict any nation from exiting the pact within three years. Consequently, Trump could not officially withdraw the U.S. until November 2020, just before President Joe Biden rejoined the agreement. This policy shift by changing administrations illustrates the precarious nature of national commitments to climate action when political landscapes shift. With Trump’s presidency signaling a return to policies favoring fossil fuels and skepticism toward climate science, the U.S. might not keep its pledge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 50% below 2005 levels by 2030. This decline in U.S. leadership and its implications for other nations’ commitments to climate action have become a central theme at COP29.
The uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy has led to a reassessment among other nations regarding their commitments at the conference. As U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres emphasizes, the urgency of the climate crisis demands not just voluntary pledges but also legally binding rules to ensure compliance. This call to action resonates particularly with developing nations, which, represented by a bloc of 134 countries, advocate for a climate finance target of $1.3 trillion annually starting in 2026. Yet, negotiations remain contentious, with parties struggling to establish a new climate finance goal that will adequately support developing countries in their climate efforts.
The introduction of a preliminary draft outlining possible decisions was met with significant criticism, with many arguing that it fails to reflect the ambitious targets necessary to combat the climate crisis. EU Commissioner for Climate Action, Wopke Hoekstra, articulated this discontent, declaring the draft unacceptable. Amidst ongoing discussions, a UN-backed document hinted at progress, suggesting that the new climate finance goal could reach into the trillions, although specifics remain undisclosed. Delegates express hopes that a collective quantified goal (NCQG) will emerge from COP29, serving as a benchmark to mobilize necessary funds for climate initiatives.
The stakes are high, especially given that the existing $100 billion climate finance target is deemed insufficient by developing nations, which contend they require three times that amount to meet their energy needs sustainably. Wealthy nations, however, have hesitated to propose a specific figure to meet the growing financial demands, with Congress in the U.S. recently allocating a mere $1 billion for international climate aid. This disparity highlights the disconnect between what developing countries need and what wealthier nations, especially under a new Trump administration, appear willing to commit.
As COP29 progresses, observers note that the implications of Trump’s presidency are reshaping the narrative around climate change, as his administration’s policies reflect a prioritization of fossil fuel production over climate action. The skepticism toward climate science and a focus on energy independence signal a broader trend away from multilateral climate commitments, with fears that both financial and political support for climate initiatives may dwindle. The uncertainties introduced by the changing leadership dynamics represent formidable obstacles to meeting the urgent goals set by previous international agreements, and many experts caution that without substantial U.S. involvement, reaching meaningful climate finance targets may become significantly more challenging.