In “How China Will Change Almost Everything,” Dr. Martin Jacques discusses the historical context of China’s economic timeline, emphasizing its significance as the world’s largest economy until the mid-19th century when it represented a substantial portion of global trade. This prominence shifted after the British Opium Wars in the early 1840s, which coerced China into opening its markets and initiated what Dr. Jacques terms the “Century of Humiliation” for the nation. Following these events, China saw a rapid decline, as foreign powers, including Britain and Portugal, occupied various territories. The establishment of the People’s Republic of China was marked by the victory of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) led by Mao Zedong, following the defeat of the Nationalist Party.
The narrative of modern China pivoted significantly with the introduction of reforms under Deng Xiaoping after Mao’s death in 1976. At that time, China faced staggering poverty, with a majority of its population living on less than $2 a day. Deng emerged as a transformative figure, leading the nation through significant economic reforms that integrated market economy principles into socialism. His policies attracted foreign investment and emphasized production for export. Under his leadership, China’s economy transitioned dramatically, ultimately becoming the second-largest in the world. This rapid transformation was also evident in its burgeoning car market, which expanded to surpass even the American market by the early 21st century.
The subsequent leadership of Xi Jinping has been characterized by a consolidation of power reminiscent of Mao’s era. Since assuming office in 2012, Xi has unambiguously reinforced his position, marked by an unprecedented third term initiated in 2022. He articulated a vision for a rejuvenated China aimed at achieving a socialist economy by 2035 and a prosperous nation by 2050. However, geopolitical analysts, such as Peter Zeihan, predict possible collapse due to demographic challenges stemming from the one-child policy, which generated a rapid decline in the working-age population. As major companies like Apple pivot away from China, concerns mount regarding the long-term viability of the CCP and its policies.
The backdrop of Xi’s rule has also included unprecedented civil unrest, notably the White Paper Movement. Initiated by young people protesting against stringent COVID-19 lockdowns, these demonstrations evolved into broader calls for democracy and accountability, targeting Xi and the CCP. The protests marked a critical moment in Chinese history and represented the largest civil dissent since the Tiananmen Square Massacre in 1989. Despite government crackdowns, the protests revealed a significant undercurrent of public disquiet regarding government policies, including the harsh COVID restrictions and general authoritarian governance.
In the face of a severe crackdown post-protests, the resilience of the protestors is palpable. There is a recognition among activists that collective trauma has fostered a sense of empowerment, despite the risks involved in civil disobedience. Reports of harsh treatment of detained protestors and ongoing government censorship showcase the high stakes involved in resisting the regime. Even as immediate hopes for systematic change ebb, the legacy of the White Paper Movement endures, subtly influencing the youth who may still harbor grievances against a government increasingly perceived as out of touch with its populace.
Looking towards the future, analysts suggest that the CCP’s high-pressure governance model may not endure indefinitely, especially considering the growing frustrations of a younger demographic eager for reform and opportunity. Activists note a discernible shift in public consciousness, where individuals feel empowered enough to push back against repression, realizing their voices can effect change. With the looming question of whether China will experience a rebirth or destruction, the sentiments expressed during recent protests underscore a pivotal moment in its historical narrative, potentially indicating a significant pivot in the geopolitical landscape.